Super Bowl Gambling: The Prop Bets

by Steve

Since the Buffalo Bills will never make the playoffs, let alone make another Super Bowl, and the only thing we Bills fans have to do is root against the cheating cheater New England Patriots we have to gamble on the Super Bowl (run on sentence?).  We all know the game is a pick 'em and the over under is 50.  Everyone already bought some luck-of-the-draw SB squares.  Duh that shits easy.  So instead lets get into the nuanced art of PROP BETS!  Everyone loves a good proper.  Here are some of my favorites:

(all odds taken from oddsmaker.ag)

R Gronkowski Longest Reception over 22.5 (-135)
Not the best payout but Gronk is gonna get a 24 yard catch before busting out both knees while his back (again) cracks in half from a nice hit by Kam Chancellor right?

Longest Made Field Goal of the Game (NO FG-NO ACTION)  over 44.5 (-120)
I see Petey lookin for a quick 3 point lead in this game going for a 46 yard field goal.  As a Bills fan would it be shocking to not see a 47 yarder on natural grass?

Will the game be Decided by Exactly 3 Points yes (+300)
Don't the Patriots always only win Super Bowls by 3 points?  Then again they probably won't win so maybe this isn't a great bet hmm..

Will the New England Patriots Successfully Convert a 4th Down? Yes (+130)
This seems like the lock of the year.  Doesn't Tommy small balls make a short 4th and 1 every god damn game seemingly?

Will the 1st Quarter end in a tie? Yes (+300)
Kind of a stupid one but I like the payout and the chances especially if there isn't some dumb safety or something on the first play from scrimmage.

LeGarrette Blount - Total Rushing Yards - Must Play over 62.5 (even)
Initially I was going to go under all day because Belicheat always does a switcharoo when they game plan but the line may have reflected that idea, plus the payout is better.  Moreover I think the Patriots will be fumbling the ball all over the place with fully inflated balls.

Rob Gronkowski - Total Receiving Yards - Must Play over (+110)
Not sure if I actually like this line or not but the over pay out is much higher than I thought it would be.  He didn't go over vs the Colts but that game was over after the muffed fumble so why not pound the ball to this big dumb dufus.

Russell Wilson - Will He Throw an Interception yes (-160)
Bad payout but I can't imagine this guy not throwing a pick, didn't he throw 4 two weeks ago? Patriots have a pretty good secondary.

Marshawn Lynch - Total Rushing Yards over 88.5 (-130)
Bang this one.  The Seahawks down 15 points were STILL running the ball last game and that was with four freaking minutes left (then again Russ Wilson was probably concussed and had no clue what was going on).  Still, the century mark for Beeshmo is expected.

Marshawn Lynch - Total Receptions over 2.5 (even)
Beeshmo has had three or more receptions three times this season out of 18 games.  He had three against the Panthers and only one against the Packers albeit a huge one near the end of the game.


Later in the week the whole staff will have their picks against the spread the over under and maybe an additional prop or too. Yes, we know this is the last football gambling for a long time and that is depressing but at least we still have The Sports Geek for the rest of our gambling until football returns in August.  And on the way out bang TAILS on the coin flip -105 all hail the tail!

Doug Whaley Talking QBs and 2015 Offense

By Steve

From the Buffalo News today http://bills.buffalonews.com/2015/01/21/whaley-says-improved-run-game-factors-qb-upgrade/

"But if people really looked at the two games this past weekend the common denominator is they all ran the ball. Even when Seattle was under the gun, 12 down,"

You can just tell GROUND AND POUND will rule the day with this team for at least the next two seasons under Rex Ryan. And while that certainly makes sense in the short term sans a QB, it is still a bit disconcerting. The bottom line is that is not a recipe for consistent success in the current NFL.

"So I don’t care what type of quarterback you have," Whaley said while here for the Senior Bowl college all-star game. "If you can run the ball -- and that’s what he does and that’s his philosophy -- it even helps out the best quarterbacks."

ALERT ALERT EJ Manuel will be the starter this September. Or at the very least you better lower expectations behind center (then again is there any other option?) Are we ready for Manuel round 3?

"We’re going to have to do a lot of hard work and a lot of due diligence, turn over every stone because just by sheer numbers we’re going to have to add a quarterback," Whaley said. "So we’re going to attack this and all the all-star games, Combine and free agency. We’re going to attack it with a lot of vigor because, again, we have to add two, maybe three, more guys to the roster. And we’re not going to sit back and let it come to us. We’re going to be aggressive and go out there and try to find the best guys.

"It’s not a deep class with quarterbacks. In my opinion, this draft is not as top-heavy as drafts past, but it’s got a glut of players that are in that second to fifth rounds that you can get a lot of value and get some really good players there."

I love the idea of bringing in AT LEAST 2 or 3 QBs in the draft and free agency but are Doug Whaley and Rex Ryan the guys to find that quarterback? Ugh I just had an end-of-life esque flash of pieces of shit like Jeff Tuel, Matt Leinhart, Kevin Kolb, Michael Vick, Matt Flynn, Geno Smith Greg McElroy and Manuel. YIKES

Hey maybe a top defense, a team that can ACTUALLY run the ball instead of just talking about it and a team that isn't coached by Doug Marrone can win enough to make a wild card game. And thats all our lowered expectactions want at this point right?

Per Carrucci here are the Senior Bowl QBs "Alabama's Blake Sims, Southeast Louisiana's Bryan Bennett, and Colorado State's Garrett Grayson on the South squad, and Baylor's Bryce Petty, Oregon State's Sean Mannion, and East Carolina's Shane Carden on the North team."

Conference Championship NFL Picks

If not for a "drop" by Dez  Bryant Steve would be 8-0 in the playoffs but I digress, here are this weeks CCS picks:

Steve 49-42-2 Best Bet 10-9 Playoffs 7-1

Colts @ Patriots over 54
Patriots -7 v Colts
Seahawks -7.5 v Packers
Packers @ Seahawks under 47

Wreck 54-35-4 Best Bet 10-8-1 Playoffs 5-3

Packers +7.5 @ Seahawks
Colts +7 @ Patriots
Packers @ Seahawks over 47
Colts @ Patriots under 54

Coast 53-37-3 Best Bet 11-8 Playoffs 5-3

Colts @ Patriots under 54
Patriots -7 v Colts
Seahawks -7.5 v Packers
Packers @ Seahawks over 47

Katman 46-45-2 Best Bet 9-10 Playoffs 3-5

Seahawks -7.5 v Packers
Colts @ Patriots over 54
Colts +7 @ Patriots
Packers @ Seahawks under 47

NFL Picks Conference Championship Games

If not for a "drop" by Dez  Bryant Steve would be 8-0 in the playoffs but I digress, here are this weeks CCS picks:


Steve 49-42-2 Best Bet 10-9 Playoffs 7-1

Colts @ Patriots over 54
Patriots -7 v Colts
Seahawks -7.5 v Packers
Packers @ Seahawks under 47


Wreck 54-35-4 Best Bet 10-8-1 Playoffs 5-3

Packers +7.5 @ Seahawks
Colts +7 @ Patriots
Packers @ Seahawks over 47
Colts @ Patriots under 54


Coast 53-37-3 Best Bet 11-8 Playoffs 5-3


Katman 46-45-2 Best Bet 9-10 Playoffs 3-5

Seahawks -7.5 v Packers
Colts @ Patriots over 54
Colts +7 @ Patriots
Packers @ Seahawks under 47

Podcast: Reaction to the Buffalo Bills Hiring Rex Ryan

The Bills hired Rex Ryan.  Time for a Podcast with Steve and Coast!

REACTION: Bills Hire Rex Ryan

By Steve

So the Bills hired a real head coach for a change? Rare, albeit Rex Ryan does have a career losing record in the division and overall as a head coach. He has playoff wins and is a defensive genius but is that what the Bills need?

Here is what I said before the hire (I ranked him 4th) " 4. Rex Ryan

He seems highly unlikely to accept the job since it is just another NYJ with out as much media but Rex is a good head coach.  True he has never developed a QB and his offenses have been abysmal.  BUT he seems to be linked with Trestman which could assuage some offense concerns.  Oh and he has won a playoff game at New England!"

He never developed a QB in New York after drafting one in the top 10 in the draft and again in the 2nd round. So why anyone would ever think he will fix EJ Manuel or the offense overall makes no sense to me.

He is bringing in Roman from SF as the OC. The words ground and pound or running game sorta make me sick. No one wins in the NFL as a running oriented offense. It is an antiquated losing mentality.

Rex never was good at in game coaching with new age thinking, time outs, clock management etc.  It seems like an exact clone of the old loser that just quit.

Rex wasn't my top choice but he brings some credibility to the organization, he was a big name option and he's famous. But all the talk of him being a players coach and players LOVE to play with him who gives a shit? What free agents did the Jets ever sign while he was there? Did any player ever go to play for Rex besides a washed up LB or S?

Im not overly optimistic. It probably comes down to getting a quarterback as anyone with a brain knows but there are offensive minded people out there that could have brought innovation and a different view to the party. And I know for a fact that is not Rex Ryan.

Our only prayer is to stumble onto Russ Wilson ii. Shit.

Divisional Round Weekend Picks

DRW!  Here are our expert picks for the 2015 Divisional Round Playoff


Steve 46-41-2 Best Bet 9-9 (Playoffs 4-0)

Seahawks -11.5 v Panthers
Ravens +7 @ Patriots
Cowboys @ Packers over 52.5
Colts +7 @ Broncos


Wreck 52-33-4  Best Bet 10-7-1  Playoffs 3-1

Panthers +11.5 @ Seahawks
Colts +7 @ Broncos
Ravens +7 @ Patriots
Packers -6 v Cowboys


Coast 50-36-3  Best Bet 11-7 Playoffs 2-2

Broncos -7 v Colts
Seahawks -11.5 v Panthers
Ravens +7 @ Patriots
Cowboys +6 @ Packers


Katman 45-42-2 Best Bet 9-9 Playoffs 2-2

Patriots -7 v Ravens
Seahawks -11.5 v Panthers
Broncos -7 v Colts
Packers -6 v Cowboys

Ranking the Bills Coaching Candidates

by Steve

The Bills are scheduled to interview two more candidates this weekend and are going to then wait until after the divisional round of the playoffs before making another move per the AP. This weekends interviews are with lame duck Greg Roman (who was the OC for a terrible (offensively) 49ers team and Lions DC Teryl Austin (a fellow Pitt alum of Doug Whaley). Whatever.  So let's rank the candidates thus far that have interviewed:

1. Darrell Bevell

This guy is my top choice.  The OC of the Seahawks, he has overseen an offense that has allowed (previously) unheralded Russ Wilson not only thrive but become one of the best QBs in the league.  Could he do the same for Manuel or another young QB out there somewhere?  He's never been a head coach but he's been with Seattle for four seasons and is still youngish at 45.  Will the Bills wait until Feb to hire this dude?

2. Hue Jackson

A surprising rank yes, but Hue Jackson has grown on me.  He is under 50, he's been a head coach (8-8 for a lone season in Oakland) and he is an offensive minded guy.  Maybe it is a sign of how uninspiring a lot of these candidates are or I'm getting soft.

3.  Mike Shanahan

Again a weak pool of candidates.  But the guy developed an offense where Bob Griffin thrived (even if he drove him into the ground and destroyed his career [then again would we have wanted our QB to sit out in a playoff game if even seemingly could still play?]).  he is old and too tan and only really won with Elway but he brings credibility and rings.  I wouldn't hate if his son came along too considering he is getting HC interviews too.

4. Rex Ryan

He seems highly unlikely to accept the job since it is just another NYJ with out as much media but Rex is a good head coach.  True he has never developed a QB and his offenses have been abysmal.  BUT he seems to be linked with Trestman which could assuage some offense concerns.  Oh and he has won a playoff game at New England!

5. Adam Gase

Young guy, offensive guy, had Peyton Manning.  Five might actually be too high for this guy but I'll buy into the hype why not. He's "the hot coordinator" or at least he was last year and that probably is about a 50/50 success rate. Plus he doesnt have the stink of previous failure on him from old regimes.

Everyone else? Meh at best

Doug Whaley Sticking With Manuel?

By Steve

Per the Buffalo News http://bills.buffalonews.com/2015/01/06/bills-interview-least-4-coach-candidates-end-week/ Doug Whaley is throwing his full support behind his first round pick from just 2 years ago (2013 16th overall pick) QB EJ Manuel..

"league source says that Bills General Manager Doug Whaley, who is leading the search process for club owners Terry and Kim Pegula, has spoken in glowing terms to candidates about quarterback EJ Manuel. The source said that Whaley is making it clear he wants the new coach to make the progress in developing Manuel, the Bills' first-round draft pick in 2013, that former coach Doug Marrone and his staff never made."

This tidbit isnt shocking at all considering it was basically Whaley's first big move as an executive in the NFL. (Sorry i dont only blame Bud Nix for the pick)

Why throw out Manuel now considering there is no other QB on the roster? He has only played 13 odd games and the Bills have no first round pick this year. 

Do I want Erik annointed some kind of savior or clear cut front runner for the starting job? Of course not. Sign and or trade for someone AND draft another quarterback obviously. But I'm not done with EJ yet and its interesting to hear Whaley (now free of asshat-Manuel-hater Marrone) still pimping his supposed bust of a first round QB.

The Bills Head Coach Search

by Steve

Well looky here, the Bills yet again need a new head coach.  I don't feel like getting into who won the dick-off between Pegula and Marrone (presumably because everyone lost assuming the Bills don't blow my mind away with their hire) so instead I'll just rattle off all the coaching candidates being reported and give you my highly sought after opinion:

(wait wait wait, so Whaley, after basically getting demoted if Polian were to have been hired is now the guy running the show WITH KIM RUSS AND OVERDORF?  My head is going to explode)

Jon Gruden
Oh, his name hasn't been reported? Fug.  He is the #1 option but he isn't an option presumably. Wait, what about $10 mil and control of the whole operation?  I have zero doubt Gruden would work and I have zero doubt that he will not be the head coach. Ouch


Mike Shanahan
The lobster is back?  Who is more desperate the Bills or red lobster himself?!!?  This ass hat failure spurned the Bills several years back when he chose the Redskins over the Bills and basically said he would never have wanted to coach here. This is a puzzler. I wouldn't hate it but I certainly wouldn't like it.


Adam Gase

Why do I feel like all Gase does in Denver is act as an assistant to Peyton Manning?  I imagine him following Manning around like a pet pooch or something.  I have no idea if this guy is qualified to be the head coach but he is only 37, has only been an offensive coordinator for 2 years with one of the best QBs of all time and weapons galore. Maybe he is the original thinker I desire but he certainly doesn't have enough experience that I would prefer.


Dan Quinn

The DC from Seattle, how difficult could it really be to coach that defense?  Moreover, it appears Gus Bradley (the guy who had his job 2 years ago and hired as head coach of the Jags) is a failure as a head coach.  He too is limited in his experience with only 2 years as an NFL defensive coordinator and before that was DC under loser Will Muschamp.  Since when does a defensive coach get hired in the NFL these days?  Anyone can coach up the Bills defense as currently constructed.  I'm not overly interested in this guy.


Darrell Bevell

While the same age as Quinn and from the same talent laden team I have much more interest in Bevell despite all the extra L's in his name.  He's been an OC nine years with Seattle and Minnesota.  Young, somewhat experienced, an offensive mind, he's got things going for him.  The problem is Seattle probably will be in the SB, thus the Bills wouldn't be able to hire him until February which is a problem.  This guy might be my leader in the club house.


Jim Schwartz

He was a wash out with the Lions because he is a hot head ass hole with a little too much hubris.  He does stabilize things immediately and would keep a sense of continuity if anyone is into that sort of thing.  Moreover, I think it would be easier to fire the guy in say 1-2 years if things flame out quickly.  It could be construed in a way where they would be clearing out all of Marrone's stink. (and yes I am already talking about firing him before he is hired which may say all you need to know, ouch).  I wouldn't hate the hire but it would be less than an inspired move by Terrance and co.


Frank Reich

Is this guy qualified to be a head coach?  If he didn't participate in one of the most famous (Bills) games in history I don't think any Buffalo fan would want this guy.  Reaching back for players/people from Buffalo's past is almost always a horrendous idea. Marv Levy?  Ted Nolan?  Isn't Reich a religious zealot? (then again that might play to a lot of the [phony] religious players in the NFL actually, so who knows)  He seems really green too with only 1 season as an offensive coordinator.  I don't like this idea at all.


Rex Ryan

I highly doubt this dude would come to Buffalo where it would seemingly be the exact same situation as the Jets just a slightly better team.  I could see Rexy wanting to be able to stick it to the Jets twice a year and he knows the division.  His offensive offensive acumen is a major concern but the guy can coach.  I just don't trust him to ever develop a quarterback based on the fact that he has never been able to develop a quarterback.


Other candidates

Pep Hamilton - Colts OC for two seasons.  Fills the Rooney rule but again doesn't seem to have a lot of experience.  Has he really elevated Luck's play?  Then again he is stuck with Trent Richardson, ouch.

Todd Bowles - Cardinals DC.  Might be my sleeper pick.  Remember he was the interim head coach for the Dolphins and won at the Ralph in 2011.  Has learned under a really good head coach in Bruce Arians.  Bowles isn't young but he isn't old and has enough experience in the league.  A bit of an outside the box hire.

Josh McDaniels - Bills missed an opportunity to interview him before the Patriots are eliminated from the playoffs so it seems unlikely he's still in the running.  He was awful in Denver which doesn't necessarily preclude him from being an option but I could coach Tom Brady under Belichick's watch.


Laughingly awful candidates mentioned:  Jack del Rio, Gary Kubiak, anyone ever associated with the Raiders (besides Gruden)


Where the hell are any and all college coaches even being mentioned, rumored, or suggested any where in this search??? I guess Whaley doesn't want to get spurned by another college coach?  Do the Bills just work off the same exact list as every other god damn team?  Does the NFL just pass out a list of former coaches they'd prefer teams hire?  This whole NFL-think (where no one can be original and everyone is in fear of doing something slightly embarrassing because it isn't the way the "NFL works") is so frustrating I hate ittttt.  Where is the original thought?!????

Wild Card Weekend Picks

One of the best weekends of the year, WCW! Let's get it:


Steve 42-41-2 Best Bet 8-9

Panthers -6 v Cardinals
Colts -3.5 v Bengals
Ravens @ Steelers over 46
Lions +7 @ Cowboys


Wreck 49-32-4 Best Bet 10-6-1

Bengals +3.5 @ Colts
Panthers -6 v Cardinals
Ravens +3.5 @ Steelers
Lions +7 @ Cowboys


Coast 48-34-3 Best Bet 11-6

Cowboys -7 v Lions
Panthers -6 v Cardinals
Steelers -3.5 v Ravens
Colts -3.5 v Bengals


Katman 43-40-2 Best Bet 8-9

Panthers -6 v Cardinals
Cowboys -7 v Lions
Ravens +3.5 @ Steelers
Bengals +3.5 @ Colts