Week 11 NFL Spreads and locks

By James

It’s no secret that a lot of the NFL’s fan-base is made up of avid sports-betters. You may have your favorite team. You probably love Monday Night Football and throwing a Super Bowl party. But if you’re a gambler, the NFL becomes less about fanfare and takes on a more businesslike approach.

Finding a good point spread in the NFL is like finding the best online casino bonuses or like getting two scratchers for the price of one. Take a game like the Atlanta Falcons at the St. Louis Rams as an example. The Falcons’ -3 spread is looking extremely healthy against a team with very little defensive muscle.
This is one of the more favorable spreads you’ll find in week 11. There are a lot of games that do appear to be too close to call, like the Philadelphia Eagles giving up 3 to the New York Giants, the New England Patriots favored by 3 ½ over the Indianapolis Colts, and the San Francisco 49ers with a questionable 3 ½ cushion over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home.

Overall, everything else is looking fairly reasonable. The New Orleans Saints are big favorites traveling to Seattle to play the on-again, off-again Seahawks, earning a cushion of 11 ½. The Chiefs make their way out to Arizona giving up 8 to the Cardinals. And Jacksonville is barely a PAT better than the Cleveland Browns in the Dog Pound, favored by only 1 ½.

There are a few sleeper teams you might want to keep an eye out for. The Bills might only have one win to their credit this season, but they’ve competed in nearly every game, playing their hearts out and just not making enough hay to get over the hump. But they’re getting the Cincinnati Bengals at home and are 6-point underdogs.
The Bengals are dysfunctional and not nearly potent enough to win big against the Bills and their collective heart. If the Lions couldn’t score big against Buffalo with Megatron, don’t expect that an over-the-hill TO and an overhyped Ochocinco will do any better.

This might be going out on a limb, but don’t look for the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover all 7 against the Oakland Raiders either. The Steelers have to travel to Oakland, where the Raiders are well rested after the bye week. Pittsburgh has a great run defense, but Oakland’s running game isn’t a one-trick pony. They don’t have to go up the gut; they can spread and sweep and do to the Steelers with Tom Brady and the Pats did.

A couple of spreads we feel are locks: The Green Bay Packers travel to Minnesota to play Favre and the Vikings and are favored by 3. Look for the Pack to win by a bigger margin than that. Brett has 16 INTs already and is on pace to throw nearly 30. Against Green Bay, he’ll try to do too much. Don’t be surprised if Brett hits the blackjack bonus special and throws 5 INTs here en route to losing 38-13.

Lastly, the New York Jets are locks to cover 7 against the Houston Texans. Houston has the worst red zone defense and the worst all-around defense in the league. Everyone facing them puts up huge numbers, and New York has a running game, a deep threat, a mobile quarterback, and a defense that will quell Andre Johnson’s attempts to keep the game close.