Thursday, April 4, 2024

Bills Trade Stefon Diggs, Have No Plan

by Steve

The Bills traded their only NFL caliber outside receiver a month into free agency seemingly on a whim with no pla, no foresight and no clue.

Now only do the Bills give Diggs, a very productive receiver at age 30 to a conference rival but they get nothing in return to help this season. They LOSE an additonal $3 mil in cap space. They lose 100+ catches and 1200+ yards. They lose Allen's best weapon with no obvious replacement.

After Beane's press conference it was clear there is no plan B, there is no part 2 of this trade. Is something like that possible? Maybe but not likely. The Bills have no cap space and a lot of holes to fill. Could they make a move in June after space opens up, sure but that is well after the draft . Options like trading for Brandon Aiyuk or god forbid Tee Higgins might closed.

Everyone knew from day 1 Diggs was an enigma, a possible malcontent and a potential problem. Why would Minny deal him if he wasn't. The trade was great, there were problems but things were fine. But was that extension in 2022 needed? Wise? Clearly not. It was botched, just like Von Miller and Dawson Knox. 

Fine, Diggs wanted out and requested to be traded, allegedly. Who cares? What was he going to be  a distraction? He already was! He wasnt going to sit out and he wasnt going to half ass it. Losing his production, losing the additonal cap space and only getting a 2025 2nd while sending out 2 picks isnt a great return. 

A pick from a future year is widely seen as subtracting a round from it. So saying its a 2nd round pick really means a third round pick. Add in losing this years 6th and next years 5th, which we'll say is equal to a 6th, the value charts put it at pick #18 in round 3 or the 82nd overall pick with a total value of 178 points on the jimmy johnson chart.

The funny thing is a lot of the old media is defending the trade. My guess is because a lot of media members didnt like Diggs. He shunned traditional media, press conferences and decorum. The Bills own media quietly said it out loud! So of course they will paint it in a rosy picture.

The worst part about all of this might be what happens next. The Bills are now clearly DESPERATE to trade up and get a top WR prospect. Does that ever work out? Has Beane ever shown he understands value or outsmarts the draft? Giving up mutiple high picks (next years first and or this years 2nd) to move up only to get the 3rd or fourth best receiver prospect is an ugly possibility. The guy they sell out for then needs to be a stud. Anyone wanna bet thats a slamdunk?

Super Bowl betting odds are based on many things. Potential injuries, leverage, exposure, luck, rubes pouring money into future bets. Because the line hasnt changed much means nothing. Are the Bills and Josh Allen now more or less likely to beat Mahomes? Do we really want to force Allen to (try) and do MORE with less talent around him? Hes already panicky in the playoffs. 

Sure the cap looks better next year and the Bills had to get younger and cheaper and WR but it seems much less likely the Bills win more in 2024 than 2023. Tossing out a year of Allen's prime is a precious thing to lose.

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