Super Bowl Gambling: The Prop Bets

by Steve

Since the Buffalo Bills will never make the playoffs, let alone make another Super Bowl, and the only thing we Bills fans have to do is root against the cheating cheater New England Patriots we have to gamble on the Super Bowl (run on sentence?).  We all know the game is a pick 'em and the over under is 50.  Everyone already bought some luck-of-the-draw SB squares.  Duh that shits easy.  So instead lets get into the nuanced art of PROP BETS!  Everyone loves a good proper.  Here are some of my favorites:

(all odds taken from oddsmaker.ag)

R Gronkowski Longest Reception over 22.5 (-135)
Not the best payout but Gronk is gonna get a 24 yard catch before busting out both knees while his back (again) cracks in half from a nice hit by Kam Chancellor right?

Longest Made Field Goal of the Game (NO FG-NO ACTION)  over 44.5 (-120)
I see Petey lookin for a quick 3 point lead in this game going for a 46 yard field goal.  As a Bills fan would it be shocking to not see a 47 yarder on natural grass?

Will the game be Decided by Exactly 3 Points yes (+300)
Don't the Patriots always only win Super Bowls by 3 points?  Then again they probably won't win so maybe this isn't a great bet hmm..

Will the New England Patriots Successfully Convert a 4th Down? Yes (+130)
This seems like the lock of the year.  Doesn't Tommy small balls make a short 4th and 1 every god damn game seemingly?

Will the 1st Quarter end in a tie? Yes (+300)
Kind of a stupid one but I like the payout and the chances especially if there isn't some dumb safety or something on the first play from scrimmage.

LeGarrette Blount - Total Rushing Yards - Must Play over 62.5 (even)
Initially I was going to go under all day because Belicheat always does a switcharoo when they game plan but the line may have reflected that idea, plus the payout is better.  Moreover I think the Patriots will be fumbling the ball all over the place with fully inflated balls.

Rob Gronkowski - Total Receiving Yards - Must Play over (+110)
Not sure if I actually like this line or not but the over pay out is much higher than I thought it would be.  He didn't go over vs the Colts but that game was over after the muffed fumble so why not pound the ball to this big dumb dufus.

Russell Wilson - Will He Throw an Interception yes (-160)
Bad payout but I can't imagine this guy not throwing a pick, didn't he throw 4 two weeks ago? Patriots have a pretty good secondary.

Marshawn Lynch - Total Rushing Yards over 88.5 (-130)
Bang this one.  The Seahawks down 15 points were STILL running the ball last game and that was with four freaking minutes left (then again Russ Wilson was probably concussed and had no clue what was going on).  Still, the century mark for Beeshmo is expected.

Marshawn Lynch - Total Receptions over 2.5 (even)
Beeshmo has had three or more receptions three times this season out of 18 games.  He had three against the Panthers and only one against the Packers albeit a huge one near the end of the game.


Later in the week the whole staff will have their picks against the spread the over under and maybe an additional prop or too. Yes, we know this is the last football gambling for a long time and that is depressing but at least we still have The Sports Geek for the rest of our gambling until football returns in August.  And on the way out bang TAILS on the coin flip -105 all hail the tail!

Doug Whaley Talking QBs and 2015 Offense

By Steve

From the Buffalo News today http://bills.buffalonews.com/2015/01/21/whaley-says-improved-run-game-factors-qb-upgrade/

"But if people really looked at the two games this past weekend the common denominator is they all ran the ball. Even when Seattle was under the gun, 12 down,"

You can just tell GROUND AND POUND will rule the day with this team for at least the next two seasons under Rex Ryan. And while that certainly makes sense in the short term sans a QB, it is still a bit disconcerting. The bottom line is that is not a recipe for consistent success in the current NFL.

"So I don’t care what type of quarterback you have," Whaley said while here for the Senior Bowl college all-star game. "If you can run the ball -- and that’s what he does and that’s his philosophy -- it even helps out the best quarterbacks."

ALERT ALERT EJ Manuel will be the starter this September. Or at the very least you better lower expectations behind center (then again is there any other option?) Are we ready for Manuel round 3?

"We’re going to have to do a lot of hard work and a lot of due diligence, turn over every stone because just by sheer numbers we’re going to have to add a quarterback," Whaley said. "So we’re going to attack this and all the all-star games, Combine and free agency. We’re going to attack it with a lot of vigor because, again, we have to add two, maybe three, more guys to the roster. And we’re not going to sit back and let it come to us. We’re going to be aggressive and go out there and try to find the best guys.

"It’s not a deep class with quarterbacks. In my opinion, this draft is not as top-heavy as drafts past, but it’s got a glut of players that are in that second to fifth rounds that you can get a lot of value and get some really good players there."

I love the idea of bringing in AT LEAST 2 or 3 QBs in the draft and free agency but are Doug Whaley and Rex Ryan the guys to find that quarterback? Ugh I just had an end-of-life esque flash of pieces of shit like Jeff Tuel, Matt Leinhart, Kevin Kolb, Michael Vick, Matt Flynn, Geno Smith Greg McElroy and Manuel. YIKES

Hey maybe a top defense, a team that can ACTUALLY run the ball instead of just talking about it and a team that isn't coached by Doug Marrone can win enough to make a wild card game. And thats all our lowered expectactions want at this point right?

Per Carrucci here are the Senior Bowl QBs "Alabama's Blake Sims, Southeast Louisiana's Bryan Bennett, and Colorado State's Garrett Grayson on the South squad, and Baylor's Bryce Petty, Oregon State's Sean Mannion, and East Carolina's Shane Carden on the North team."

Conference Championship NFL Picks

If not for a "drop" by Dez  Bryant Steve would be 8-0 in the playoffs but I digress, here are this weeks CCS picks:

Steve 49-42-2 Best Bet 10-9 Playoffs 7-1

Colts @ Patriots over 54
Patriots -7 v Colts
Seahawks -7.5 v Packers
Packers @ Seahawks under 47

Wreck 54-35-4 Best Bet 10-8-1 Playoffs 5-3

Packers +7.5 @ Seahawks
Colts +7 @ Patriots
Packers @ Seahawks over 47
Colts @ Patriots under 54

Coast 53-37-3 Best Bet 11-8 Playoffs 5-3

Colts @ Patriots under 54
Patriots -7 v Colts
Seahawks -7.5 v Packers
Packers @ Seahawks over 47

Katman 46-45-2 Best Bet 9-10 Playoffs 3-5

Seahawks -7.5 v Packers
Colts @ Patriots over 54
Colts +7 @ Patriots
Packers @ Seahawks under 47

NFL Picks Conference Championship Games

If not for a "drop" by Dez  Bryant Steve would be 8-0 in the playoffs but I digress, here are this weeks CCS picks:


Steve 49-42-2 Best Bet 10-9 Playoffs 7-1

Colts @ Patriots over 54
Patriots -7 v Colts
Seahawks -7.5 v Packers
Packers @ Seahawks under 47


Wreck 54-35-4 Best Bet 10-8-1 Playoffs 5-3

Packers +7.5 @ Seahawks
Colts +7 @ Patriots
Packers @ Seahawks over 47
Colts @ Patriots under 54


Coast 53-37-3 Best Bet 11-8 Playoffs 5-3


Katman 46-45-2 Best Bet 9-10 Playoffs 3-5

Seahawks -7.5 v Packers
Colts @ Patriots over 54
Colts +7 @ Patriots
Packers @ Seahawks under 47

Podcast: Reaction to the Buffalo Bills Hiring Rex Ryan

The Bills hired Rex Ryan.  Time for a Podcast with Steve and Coast!

REACTION: Bills Hire Rex Ryan

By Steve

So the Bills hired a real head coach for a change? Rare, albeit Rex Ryan does have a career losing record in the division and overall as a head coach. He has playoff wins and is a defensive genius but is that what the Bills need?

Here is what I said before the hire (I ranked him 4th) " 4. Rex Ryan

He seems highly unlikely to accept the job since it is just another NYJ with out as much media but Rex is a good head coach.  True he has never developed a QB and his offenses have been abysmal.  BUT he seems to be linked with Trestman which could assuage some offense concerns.  Oh and he has won a playoff game at New England!"

He never developed a QB in New York after drafting one in the top 10 in the draft and again in the 2nd round. So why anyone would ever think he will fix EJ Manuel or the offense overall makes no sense to me.

He is bringing in Roman from SF as the OC. The words ground and pound or running game sorta make me sick. No one wins in the NFL as a running oriented offense. It is an antiquated losing mentality.

Rex never was good at in game coaching with new age thinking, time outs, clock management etc.  It seems like an exact clone of the old loser that just quit.

Rex wasn't my top choice but he brings some credibility to the organization, he was a big name option and he's famous. But all the talk of him being a players coach and players LOVE to play with him who gives a shit? What free agents did the Jets ever sign while he was there? Did any player ever go to play for Rex besides a washed up LB or S?

Im not overly optimistic. It probably comes down to getting a quarterback as anyone with a brain knows but there are offensive minded people out there that could have brought innovation and a different view to the party. And I know for a fact that is not Rex Ryan.

Our only prayer is to stumble onto Russ Wilson ii. Shit.

Divisional Round Weekend Picks

DRW!  Here are our expert picks for the 2015 Divisional Round Playoff


Steve 46-41-2 Best Bet 9-9 (Playoffs 4-0)

Seahawks -11.5 v Panthers
Ravens +7 @ Patriots
Cowboys @ Packers over 52.5
Colts +7 @ Broncos


Wreck 52-33-4  Best Bet 10-7-1  Playoffs 3-1

Panthers +11.5 @ Seahawks
Colts +7 @ Broncos
Ravens +7 @ Patriots
Packers -6 v Cowboys


Coast 50-36-3  Best Bet 11-7 Playoffs 2-2

Broncos -7 v Colts
Seahawks -11.5 v Panthers
Ravens +7 @ Patriots
Cowboys +6 @ Packers


Katman 45-42-2 Best Bet 9-9 Playoffs 2-2

Patriots -7 v Ravens
Seahawks -11.5 v Panthers
Broncos -7 v Colts
Packers -6 v Cowboys