2024 Buffalo Bills Spread For the Season

by steve

The spreads are out and have settled. Lets take a look at the spread of all 17 2024 regular season Bills games via DK:

week 1

bills -7 v arizona

week 2

+1 @ miami

week 3

-4.5 v Jacksonville 

week 4

+3 @ Baltimore 

week 5

+1.5 @ Houston 

week 6

+1.5 @ Jets

week 7

-7 v Tenny

week 8

-3 @ Seattle 

week 9

-3 v Miami 

week 10

-2 @ Colts

week 11

-1 v KC

week 12

bye

week 13

+2 @ 49ers

week 14

-1 @ Rams

week 15

+2 @ Detroit 

week 16

-8.5 v Patriots

week 17

-2.5 v Jets

week 18

-3.5 @ Patriots

Bills are dogs for the most games in 5 years with games as an underdog and even getting points at home vs SF.

Buffalo is +700 4th best odds to win the AFC,  +160 best odds to win the division.

Their current win total is 10.5 with the under being hammered at  -140

Bills 2024 2nd Round Pick Keon Coleman

Patriots traded their pick right after us. We drafted the replacement for Gabe Davis

Keon Coleman is big but cant separate and played mostly at MSU. At least we traded back

grade 

C+

2024 NFL Draft Buffalo Bills Preview Predictions Part 5

by steve

Here are links to the first four parts of my Bills draft preview

The ideal day 1 would be for the Bills to move out of the first round and have three 2nd round picks or two and a 3rd. Take two 2nd round receivers.

In this scenario the Bills looking around at 28 and the top 4 or even 5 receivers are already gone and there is no round 1 grade on anyone else.

If trading down doesnt come to fruition Is go either Coleman or Worthy. I could live with the white Iowa safety but it would put tremendous pressure on Beane to get WEAPONS on Friday (coleman, franklin, pearsall, worthy).

Worst case scenario is moving 3+ premium picks to draft the 3rd or 4th best WR prospect. No one knows if these dudes are going to be good and the 29% hit rate for receivers in round 1 the last 20 years is scary.

Sure you get 4 years of a cheap contract (the fifth year is gonna be at least $16mil) so you save 20 to 25 mil in cap space vs trading for someone like Aiyuk but Aiyuk is a guarantee you are getting a stud. Drafting the second best Texas or LSU receiver is certainly no guarantee. 

But fo the Bills really care that much about cap space? They just pussed away $30 mil in space on someone to help beat them this season. Cap space is a borderline myth. I dont buy the cheap contract rhetoric, plus it likely wouldnt cost a first for Aiyuk. 

I could stomach moving up 3-5 spots at best for the WR they covet but you cant lose the 2nd round pick.

Other Draft predictions:

QBs dont go 1-4

Adi Mitchell falls out of the first round

No runningback goes til round 3

5 QBs go first round.

Everyine loves what the Bears do and rip the Patriots

2024 NFL Draft Preview Buffalo Bills Part 3

The 2024 draft is tomorrow. 

Here is part 1, the picks and needs

Part 2 random WR takes

And now more misc:

Everyone says this is a deep WR class but is that actually the case? Who the fuck knows but I took a look at the last 4 drafts and a handfull of 7 round mock drafts and came up with these numbers from rounds 1-5:

2023

There were 20 receivers taken in the first 5 rounds. Round by round:

4, 4, 6, 3, 3

2022 

23 receivers drafted rounds 1-5

6, 7, 4, 3, 3

2021

23 receivers drafted rounds 1-5

5, 5, 5, 5, 3

2020

25 receivers drafted rounds 1-5

6, 7, 2, 2, 8

i looked at three 7 round mocks they had an average of 27.3 receivers taken in the first 5 rounds. 

Is that really that much more than the 4 year rolling average? no.

Schefter posted the hit rate or percent of first round positions that signed a second contract with the team that drafted them. Receivers were DFL with only 27% of WRs the last 20 years "hitting" as a first round pick.

Beane better be smart enough to not bet the farm on the 3rd or 4th best WR prospect in round 1.

2024 NFL Draft Buffalo Bills Preview Part 2 WRs

by steve

Here is part 1, Bills needs.

Clearly the Bills are desperate for receivers. Most mocks have 5-7 WRs going in the first round with 3 going top 10. With Brandon Beane having a propensity for foolishly trading up it means the Bills likely wont have any picks on day 2.

So, I looked at WRs from last years class in rounds 3-6:

Round 3

Dell, Hyatt, Tillman, Downs, Michael Wilson and Trey Tucker.

They averaged 36 catches 497 yards and 2.3 TDs.

Round 4

Davis, Jones, and Tyler Scott.

They averaged 13 cstches 99 yards and 0 TDs for the season. Yikes

Round 5 

Shorter, Wicks & Puka.

They averaged 48 catches, 689 yards and 3.3 TDs.

Round 6 had a few decent players, Parker Washington and Trey Palmer.

Based on this info Id say it would be wise to try to keep as many of their 4-6 picks and draft mutiple day 3 receivers. But will Beane allow the board to come to him or will he waste picks and reach for players he has no clue will be good or not.

2024 Buffalo Bills NFL Draft Preview

by steve

The draft is Thursday. Lets preview it:

The Bills picks:

round 1 28

round 2 60

round 4 128

round 4 133

round 5 144

round 5 160

round 5 163

round 6 200

round 6 204

round 7 248

Biggest needs:

WR

WR

Safety

Edge

Center

After the Diggs trade and Gabe Davis departing in free agency the Bills are bereft of talent and bodies at the WR position. At the time I said the trade made zero sense and I stand by that with no step 2 after the move.

Everyone knows trading up is stupid yet Beane always does and is almost guaranteed to do it again Thursday. If he trades this years 2nd or next years first and i might snap. 

Sabres Do Obvious Thing, Fire Shitty Coach

by steve

The surprising thing is the Sabres did the correct thing. They did the thing that no one thought they would do. They did the thing real sports franchises and real NHL teams do. They fired their bad head coach.

 Don Granato was finally fired

Sure, Granato had a contract extension that doesn't even start until next season. But also he was a bad head coach. So he had to be fired.

Believe it or not, its not hard to make the playoffs in the NHL. Sure, everything is difficult for the Sabres to do but for just about every other team ever, its not hard. Every team randomly makes the playoffs every 3 or 4 years.

It is unfathomable that the Sabres have gone THIRTEEN years without making the playoffs. Truly unbelievable. 

There are no kudos or bonus points for Kyvynyn Adams actually doing the thing he had to do. But cmon there is no way he would have done this with out zombie Terry Pegula's blessing or dictate. Who the fuck knows though, we never hear from Terry and likely wont after this.

I don't really have names for a replacement. Pick it out of a hat. The team is fuckin soft, young and used to losing. Go with a tough guy, a hardass. Whip these boys into shape.

Just dont hire Lindy Ruff.

Peace out Donny meatballs, thanks for nothing.