Trade Willis? Let's Look at the Facts

by Coast

Now that the Bills have bolstered their offensive line, the attention is squarely centered on the Bills starting running back Willis McGahee.

There is much debate among Bills and NFL enthusiasts about whether Buffalo should or should not trade him. I say that they absolutely should not.

Here's why:

• Most importantly, there is no need to generate another need when the Bills already have so many. Everyone can agree that McGahee is an above average running back in this league so why get rid of him?
• It will be impossible to get anything worth while for Willis. He is worth a third round draft pick at best. His production last season doesn't warrant anything more.
• There is no one the Bills can get to replace him that is of equal caliber. With Thomas Jones going to the Jets and Travis Henry going to Denver, there is no starting tail back available to match the skill set of McGahee. Jamal Lewis is out there, but he has off the field problems and averaged only 3.6 yards per carry last season. Buffalo did have 2 players in town today in Chris Brown and Dominic Rhodes. Neither of these guys would do an adequate job of replacing McGahee.
• Chris Brown never played an entire season in his 4 year NFL career. He only rushed for over 1,000 yards once and only averaged over 4 yards per carry once in his career. He has serious injury problems and cannot be depended on as a featured runner.
• Dominic Rhodes played with Peyton Manning his entire career. You can throw just about any NFL caliber back in the frey with Manning and he will put up some numbers. Defenses just cannot key on the run with Manning under center. Case in point: Edgerrin James. With the Colts, James averaged over 4 per carry in 6 out of 7 years. When he moved to Arizona, a team without a proven NFL quarterback in Matt Leinart and with a declining quarterback in Kurt Warner, James averaged only 3.4 yards per carry and only 6 touchdowns, down from 13 the year before. Dominic Rhodes had a good year last year with Indianapolis, but it is hard to argue that he is of the caliber of James, and if James fell off as much as he did without Manning, it is possible that Rhodes will too.

What does McGahee bring to the table that these other backs can't?

• Willis has been in the league 3 years. In the first year in which he could actually play, he burst onto the scene with 1128 and 13 tds in only 11 starts. This was with a quarterback that has proven he could succeed through the air and two respectable wide recievers in Lee Evans and Eric Moulds, although Evans was only a rookie.
• In McGahee's second year, 2005, he played behind a first year quarterback and a franchise that was in disarray. Teams showed no respect to the passing game with Losman under center and were able to put 7 and 8 men in the box to stop the run. Also, the Bills offensive line had no cohesiveness as players were moved in and out of the lineup and changing positions. Jason Peters played his first games on the offensive line this season and Mike Williams was being thrown into the lineup at left guard. The offense and even moreso, the coaching staff, was a complete mess. It is impressive to me that he was even able to put up 1247 yards in this type of atmosphere.
• Last season, McGahee couldn't reach the 1,000 yard mark, with 990 yards and 6 touchdowns. People look at these numbers and think, wow this guy isn't producing. Well, he was in a new system with another really bad offensive line. 3 of the 5 starting linemen at the beginning of the season are no longer on the Bills roster. Villiarial and Reyes were released and Gandy will not be resigned. Also, for the 2nd half of the season, McGahee was playing behind a line that consisted of a 7th round draft pick rookie Terrance Pennington and a 2nd year man, Duke Preston. They were O.K. but the run blocking was terrible. Further, McGahee missed 3 games verse the Packers, Colts and Texans. These 3 defenses were bad to say the least during the regular season so it is a distinct possibility that Willis could have ran for 310 more yards and got to 1,300. People would have a much different opinion of him if he had these numbers.

McGahee, on the field, is better than any alternative that we have or could attain in this offseason. Let the man play his contract year because he will be determined to have a great season to land some money in free agency. Besides, you can count on him to come out and dominate 33% of our division. You can bank on him having 130 and a td at least every time we play the Jets.