Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Patriots at Bills Preview: Stats

by Steve

Strap it in, the undefeated New England Patriots visit the undefeated Buffalo Bills Sunday to compete for a 4-0 record and a stranglehold on the division. Do the Bills have a chance?

Lets take a look:

Under Sean McDermott the Bills are 0-4 straight up and 1-3 against the spread.  In those four games the average score was 9 to 27.

At home the Bills have been even worse than at New England. In Buffalo McDerr and the Bills have averaged 5 points. FIVE. They lost on 12/3/17 in an ugly game 23 to 3 with Tyrod Taylor going for 9-18 65 yards 0 TD 1 INT. Last season ( on MNF) Daboll and his crew managed to put up 6 points and lost 25-6 (not coming close to covering the +13.5). In this one to be fair Derek Anderson and Nathan Peterman played.

The only time McDerr and the Bills covered was when Josh Allen started, 12/23/18 in a 24-12 lost. They were getting 13.5 again that day and barely squeaked out the cover. Allen went 20-41 217 1 TD 2 INT. The other game 12/24/17 the Bills lost 37-16 and were +11 at kick off.

To recap, under McDermott the Bills have lost by an average of 27-9. The most they have scored in the four games is 16 points and have only put up 3 and 6 points at home. The five prior seasons the Bills scored 25, 32, 22, 21 and 28 points against New England in Buffalo.

Clearly, McDerr's plan of slow down the game and lose in a boring low scoring game has not worked. Look for more of the same Sunday.


Lets take a look at the defensive stats.

The problem over the last two years of McDerr vs the Patriots isnt so much the passing game as the running game.

Tawmmy Brady has thrown for 244, 218, 311 and 117 net yards in those four games. He is averaging 223 yards per game, which is actually pretty respectable. Although, the Bills defense allowed an average of 231 yards pssing per game in 2017 and 179 yard passing per game in 2018.

Against the run is a different story. The cheatriots have ran for 191, 193, 76 and 273 yard in those four games. They have averaged 183 yards on the ground.

As a team the Bills allowed an average of 125 yards rushing per game in 2017 and 115 yards rushing per game in 2018. Clearly they are giving up WELL above their averaging in rushing yards and

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