Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Week 2 Bills Power Rankings Compilation

A compilation of the Buffalo Bills power rankings from select sites heading into week 2:

ESPN:
Bills lose and they move ahead of Cleveland to claim #29
"Buffalo limited EJ Manuel's movement well in his return from knee surgery. Manuel was 18-for-25 for 150 yards and a pair of touchdowns out of the shotgun."

Walterfootball:
Bills move up one spot to 26
"I need to see one more strong performance from the Bills (including a win) to move them up my power rankings. A lot of weird stuff happened in that New England contest, including Stevan Ridley's non-contact fumble returned for a touchdown. Would Buffalo have been competitive if that never happened? I'm not so sure."

PFT:
They start theirs now so Bills start at 25
"They know how to knock on the door.  They still can’t find the knob."

CBS Sports:
26
 "I liked EJ Manuel in college, even more at the Senior Bowl and was convinced after my camp visit that he was the real deal. The Bills will be dangerous in the second half of this season."

Fox Sports:
"The Bills move up 3 spots to 24 (with some sorta racism by default?)
EJ Manuel reminds me a lot of Steve McNair and Sunday was just a glimpse into the success he can have in this league. Not too many people can say they had Tom Brady on the ropes in their first career start.  "

Yahoo! Sports:
Moved to 2 spots to 27
"Part of their move up is that quarterback EJ Manuel looked healthy, and pretty good."

Monday, September 9, 2013

Patriots 23 Bills 21 - Coast's Reaction

So I was only 50% correct with my prediction of 38-17. I was obviously wrong about the result and the final score, but I was right about New England being an average team. For the first time in about 10 years, I didn't have the fear of God in me when New England had the ball.

The new era of Bills football began with another familiar crushing defeat. This game can be added to the list of demoralizing home losses on opening day along with Jacksonville in 2004 and Denver in 2007 to name a few. The reason why the Bills lost is pretty simple in my opinion.

Steve Johnson can't catch. Johnson has had so many critical jobs in his career. It seems like every single time we have had a big moment in a big game against a good team, he has made a critical drop. We haven't had many of these moments, which makes all of his drops so memorable. Overtime vs. the Steelers, drops the ball in the end zone. 4th quarter against the Jets, drops the ball on what may have been a touchdown. This time, with about 8:50 to go in the 4th quarter, Johnson drops a reasonably well thrown pass at the Patriots 48 that would have been a first down inside Patriots territory. Who knows what would have ended up happening if he caught this pass...but the way the game was going, even a field goal on that possession would have increased the Bills chances of winning significantly. What percentage of the nearly 70,000 strong in the stadium knew the game was over as soon as that ball hit the turf? I say 100%. Steve Johnson came into the game talking about how no one on the Patriots could cover him. He follows that up with less than 40 yards receiving and a critical drop. He also blew off the media after the game and on Monday morning.

The second reason why we lost is Nate Hackett's play calling was too predictable and conservative. The Bills lined up in the same 3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE formation pretty much every single play. They ran the same draw play basically every time they ran the ball. The play action pass was rarely  used. It seemed like every time we got a few good runs in a row, we would run the same play again and get stuffed. The Bills had 13 plays in which they needed less than 5 yards to go for a first down and ran on 9 of them, and ran the same draw play each time. I thought Manuel showed enough that he could have been trusted to do more during the game, but he just wasn't. It was obvious New England spent the past 2 weeks game planning for Spiller, so the play action would have worked especially well when he was out there. It was a little disappointing.

The Bills also had some critical penalties. There were multiple illegal hands to the face penalties that cost big plays. Robert Woods had a 20 yard pass negated on a penalty. Jackson had a first down reception negated by a penalty. The Bills had 10 penalties for 75 yards. The Patriots only had 4 for 36 yards. That is something that needs to be fixed immediately. It was a problem in the preseason and has continued into the regular season.

Some people are blaming the turnovers as contributing to the loss. Obviously the turnovers hurt, but New England gave the Bills some gifts too. The Spiller fumble directly resulted in a TD, but the Patriots fumble that Searcy returned for a TD was a gift. The Goodwin fumble also resulted in a TD, but Rogers INT led to a Bills TD and the Patriots also fumbled at the goal line. I would say the impact of turnovers in this game was pretty much a wash.

People have also been criticizing the hurry up offense in the 4th quarter for contributing to the loss. This has absolutely no bearing on the outcome. First, our entire offensive system is based on the no huddle...so now all of a sudden people wanted the Bills to huddle? Second, the Patriots had all of their time outs. The chances we would run out the clock there were slim to none. Third, we were only up 1 point against Tom Brady. Just like Marrone said, we still needed to score to win the game. I have no problem with the hurry up on the last drive. The only problem that I may have had was to not run it with Spiller on first down. Everyone on Earth could have expected that, which is why it got stuffed.

People are complaining about the defense and Mario Williams. The defense held the Patriots to 23 points. They had zero real touchdown drives (one was about 9 yards and the other about 30). The secondary was missing its two best players. The Bills did get pressure. Brady only completed 56% of his passes and looked uncomfortable a lot of times. The defensive performance actually gives me some hope for the rest of the season. I mean think about what the Bills were working with. Aaron Williams' first game at safety. Byrd out. Gilmore out. Rogers and undrafted rookie Nikel Roby playing significant numbers of snaps. Kiko Alonso played every single snap and it was his first game as a rookie. On top of all that, they were going up against arguably the GOAT. I thought they did well.

I think that everyone needs to just relax. It is one game out of 16. The overreaction by so many Bills fans after one game is just so ridiculous. I wonder what all of these idiots would be saying if Steve Johnson caught that third down pass and the Bills won the game? I would venture to guess they would be anointing Doug Marrone as a HOFer and not calling for his job. Wake up people.

As an aside, the Bills are 3 point underdogs at home against Carolina. Someone please explain this line to me. The Panthers only won 1 more game than the Bills last year and lost their opening day game at home as well. You mean to tell me the Panthers would be -9 if this game was home for them? Their coach is Ron Rivera for Christ sake. Its back to back weeks of the Bills being one of the biggest locks of the week.

LET's GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Saturday, September 7, 2013

Week 1 NFL Picks

Steve Wreck and now Coast will be picking 5 games against the spread with our best bets each week throughout the season.  Last year Steve finished 51-41-3 best bet 7-11-2 and Wreck finished 51-45-1 through the Super Bowl. In 2011 Steve finished 59-35 and Wreck finished 49-44 fwiw.

Week 1 Picks

Steve

Tampa Bay @ NY Jets under 40
Buffalo +10.5 v New England
Cincinnati +3 @ Chicago
Cleveland -1 v Miami
Minnesota +4.5 @ Detroit


Wreck

Carolina +4 v Seattle
Buffalo +10.5 v New England
Oakland +10.5 @ Indianapolis
Green Bay +4.5 @ San Francisco
Jacksonville +4 v Kansas City


Coast

New Orleans -3 v Atlanta
Chicago -3 v Cincinatti
NY Jets +4 v  Tampa Bay
Seattle -4 @ Carolina
Buffalo +10.5 v New England

Thursday, September 5, 2013

2013 Buffalo Bills season preview podcast

by Steve

Coast Steve Wreck And a special guest start in the first podcast of the 2013 season:


    
   
   
   
   
   
       


right click save as to download, or let it load all the way

   




2013 NFL Predictions: Total Wins

by Steve

The "professional" prognosticators were posted here and coast previewed Bills v Pats, now it is my time to start dropping some knowledge/predictions.

Total wins for all 32 teams based on our boys at Oddsmaker (pay out of the under is next to the win total):

Arizona Cardinals 5.5, under +145
Carson Palmer? Now the toughest division, surprisingly, in football after being the worst for a decade?  I'll take that extra juice and the under.

Atlanta Falcons 10, under -140
Some expecting a fall from last year but I think Matty Daddy Ice is progressing nicely, although I don't like their silverfoxed head coach. 11 wins are in order

Baltimore Ravens 8.5, under even
They may have just been getting really lucky last year at the right time but can't that be said for a lot of teams that get to the Super Bowl?  They have a great home field advantage and their division is meh. Takin the over

Buffalo Bills 6.5, under -140
Little talent, mediocre rookie head coach, no depth, young players all over the field expected to make huge contributions right away?  Not gonna win much money but I'll take the under. 5-11

Carolina Panthers 7, under +135
An interesting team that could be a blue print for the Bills.  Their coach is abysmal and Newton needs to keep upright.  Are there enough weapons on offense for this team to make the leap back to relevancy? Not with ol' transition lens. under (I'd love a push actually)

Chicago Bears 8.5, under +125
Another enigma and I had to verify that the canuck Trestman was their head coach.  Take under even though I like me some Jay Cutler.

Cincinnati Bengals 8.5 under +125
This team just makes the playoffs despite an inspiration-less  head coach.  The defense is also nasty and probs because they have to practice outside. Easy over.

Cleveland Browns 6.5 under even
Huh?  This doesn't make a lot of sense.  This team sucks.  They have a new coach every other year, a 31 year old second year QB.  I don't know if Trent Richardson is durable enough but he is a god damn beast.  Under.

Dallas Cowboys 8.5, under -110
I feel like if any team could push on an o/u 8.5 bet it would be Jerra [sic] and the 'boys. (a tie is considered a loss tho).  They're goin under sorry Big D.

Denver Brocos 11.5 under -140
There has to be a few teams that win 12 or 13 wins so this team is as good as any to do that.  Plus that division is weaaakkkk. Over

Detroit Lions 7.5, under +140
Do or die for asshole Schwartz right?  It is the Lions so I'm takin the under.

Green Bay Packers 10.5, under -10
Aaron Rodgers is a pretty good regular season QB so I'll pencil them in for 11 wins.

Houston Texans 10.5, under -150
Not gonna win a ton with an under bet here so I'll ride with Schaub to another wildcard weekend win then lose in the divisional round again. Over

Indianapolis Colts 8.5, under +105
Is all the luck over already in Indy?  Tennessee still sucks, Jax is worse, but 8-8 isn't even a bad year. Under

Jacksonville Jaguars 5, under -115
Teddy Bridgewater watch is already under way. 4-12, under!

KC Chiefs 7.5, under +125
A new head coach and quarterback retreads (wait what?) have to be an improvement but just 'cause a team had a bunch of "pro bowlers" don't mean shit.  Plus I hate their first pick. under

Miami Dolphins 7.5, under 125
Tannehill? Under

Minnesota Vikings 7.5, -140
Christian Ponder isn't good but their running back is. I'm not positive that's worth 8 wins but I need a couple overs to even things out. 8-8 and over 7.5

New England Patriots 11, under -165
Perplexing unless you think Gronk will be hobbled all year and the genius drafting of undrafted players to play wide receiver isn't genius.  Why doesn't this team load up whilst they still have a really good quarterback? Fuck, they'll still win 11 or 12 so I'll bang the over.

New Orleans Saints 9.5, under +105
Tough division will lead to only 9 wins, unless they pay their players to hit the opponent really hard again.

New York Giants 9, under -120
Does this team ever win more than 9 games? Eli! Over!

New York Jets 6, under -135
This team is the more over covered awful team in all of sports. Go away and die. Under

Oakland 5.5, under -170
Anyone that feels bad for Matt Flynn just look at his bank account. Pryor is my boy and six wins is doable. Over

Philadelphia Eagles 7 under +120
An interesting team soley because of grimey p.o.s. fat Chip Kelly. Where is your neck? .500 and over.

Pittsburgh Steelers 9.5 -130
Like stealing candy from a baby. This under is cashe allll day.

San Diego Chargers 7.5, under -130
Least interesting team in the league? Probs. Under

San Francisco 49ers 11.5, under -150
How did I go ftom not munding these guys to outright hating then? Maybe because they are a thousand times better than the Bills. But i gotta go under in that division.

Seattle Seahawks 10.5, under even
Easy home schedule afds up to 11 wins and the over

St Louis Rams 7.5 under even
Fish dawg needs to start winning, same goes for Sam Brad. I could see 8 wins.

Tampa Bay Bucs 7.5, under +120
Greg Schiano looks like a genius by jumping off that burning shipwreck at Rutgers but Im not sure he can win in the NFL. Under.

Tennessee Titans 6.5, under -125
This team is the Bills. Under.

Washington Redskins 8.5, under -140
Surprising that the money is going on the under, wont this team only get better? Over

Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Week 1 Preview: Patriots @ Bills

-Coast

EEEEEJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ

The Bills will open the season with their rookie, stud, guaranteed future pro bowl, rookie of the year, MVP, Super Bowl champion, future hall of fame quarterback, Erik James Manuel at home against the New England Patriots. Alright...that could be a stretch...but the reason why it awesome is for the first year in the past, I don't know, 27 years since Kelly's debut, it is actually NOT impossible.

Does anyone actually think the Bills are going to win this game? YEP...me, and here is why: the Bills are going to be better than 2012, and Patriots are going to be worse, they have to. Now, I am definitely not an expert on what the Patriots did in the off season, especially on defense, but I do know that they have lost basically their whole offense...Welker, the murderer, Gronk, Lloyd and whoever else they had that caught passes. Brady is playing with a bunch of no-namers. New England's receivers this weekend are Danny Amendola (who we will get to in a minute), Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater, Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce. Gronk might play even with his surgically repaired...entire body...but if he doesn't, their tight end will be Michael Hoomanawanui. Yep, that is his real last name.

Back to Amendola...I think it is HILARIOUS that anyone thinks this guy is going to step in and replace Wes Welker...who has torched the Bills since he has been on the Patriots. Here are Welker's numbers vs. the Bills in just the past two seasons: 37 receptions, 468 yards and 2 touchdowns. I understand that Amendola did not have Tom Brady, but his best season included 85 catches for a whopping 689 yards. He has 7 career touchdowns in 4 years. He has played 12 games total in the past 2 years and is ALREADY hurt with a groin injury. This guy is a bum. The Pats wide receiver corps are unproven to say the least...and Amendola is not even a poor man's Wes Welker. I know that the Bills secondary is banged up and basically sucks...but they might be BETTER than the patriots receivers.

Whatever, the Patriots have Brady, they will score 30 points if you line up Steve and I at WR and T-wreck at H back. If they don't, that Bill Belicheat defense will certainly shut down the Bills rookie quarterback. I say...not so fast. The Pats defense sucked in 2012 (25th in yards allowed per game). On top of that, the Bills offense has lit it up the past two years against the Cheatriots. They are averaging 442 yards per game in the past 4 games against the mastermind. Even more amazing, the 4th best QB in team history Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged 2.5 touchdowns and 341 yards per game. He threw for over 300 in all 4 games. The Bills also averaged 28.5 points per game. I think it is extremely possible this offense has a lot of success Sunday. First, EJ Manual COULD be better than Fitzpatrick (Fitz did throw 11 INTs in these games). Second, the Bills have better WRs. I would take Stevie, Woods, Graham & Goodman over Stevie, Don Jones, Nelson...I am done, I just puked. Third, the Bills will have the best player on the field UNQUESTIONABLY in CJ Spiller. In the game at Foxboro last year, Spiller had 13 touches for 131 yards. If my math is correct, that is 10 yards per touch. He lit them up (the funny part about this is that Fred Jackson had 20 touches for 115 yards and Spiller was on the bench the whole final drive). This time, Spiller won't get 1/3 of the touches. He will get 4/5 of the touches...and I am going out on a limb and predicting a 200 yard from scrimmage game from Spiller Sunday.

Another reason the Bills could (are going to) win the game is coaching. The Bills 2012 staff was probably one of the worst in the history of the league. Dave Wannstedt was the defensive coordinator. Chan Gailey was the head coach and the play caller. These guys were good coaches back in...never. I know the Bills defense under Gailey produced possibly the worst three year stretch in team history, but I blame a lot of that on coaching. The Bills starting defense (assuming Byrd is the starter and when Gilmore is healthy) includes 8 first and second round picks. Is there any way all of these guys suck? I hope not. Hopefully we see substantial improvement with a coaching staff that seems to have a clue. Mario Williams, Marcel Dareus, Aaron Williams and Alex Carrington can't possibly be worse than they were in 2012. Kiko Alonso has potential to be a stud. Kyle Williams is one year closer to retirement. McKelvin is about to turn the corner I can feel it. Brooks and Rogers are playing for their careers. Nigel Bradham is from FSU. Manny Lawson, Jerry Hughes...these guys are going to get after the quarterback. This defense is going to surprise some people...I guarantee it.

The Bills are getting 11 at some places. I am taking the Bills money line. Every year there is a team that surprises everyone and why can't this year's team be the Bills? They fit the mold...young team, rookie QB, lot of speed and talent on both sides of the ball, rookie/young coaching staff. Bills 38 Patriots 17 in a laugher. The game will be over mid 3rd quarter.

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

2013 Buffalo Bills Season Preview: Media Predictions

by Steve

The season starts in 5 days and although everyone pretends to not care what all the pundits think all these fuckin websites put out preseason rankings and predictions so some one must be reading them.  Here is a compilation of the lame stream media's predictions:

ESPN Preseason Power Rankings:

Bills 30th "Jeff Tuel is the starter (for now). Tuel ranked 64th in FBS in opponent-adjusted Total QBR last season at Washington State and gets the Pats in Week 1."

Bill Barnwell (grantland)
He has the Bills as one of eight cellar dwellers. "Even if Buffalo gets a better campaign from Mario Williams in his second year with the team, the promise of a playoff run still seems years away.
Best-Case Scenario: Manuel and C.J. Spiller do their best Robert Griffin–and–Alfred Morris impression, and the big names on the Buffalo defense do their best impression of the impact they were supposed to have. The Bills sneak into the playoffs at 10-6."

His worst case scenario consisted of a Home Improvement youtube video. Ouch


The Buffalo News:
Mark Gaughan 6-10
Kay Skurski 5-11
Tim Graham 6-10
Jerry Sullivan 3-13 (he has Miami and Cleveland as his wild car picks [ha])

Walterfootball
Bills 26th "E.J. Manuel's poise in the pocket during his two preseason games convinced me that the Bills will be competitive in most of their games this year. Buffalo fans have to be thrilled about this because having Kevin Kolb as the starter would be disastrous. All opposing defenses would need to do is put a wet mat on the field, and the Bills would be done for."

Pete Prisco
3-13

Bleacher Report
Bills 28th "The defense will rely on the front seven getting a pass rush, something they've struggled to do outside of Jerry Hughes' exceptional play in the preseason. The secondary has talent—notably Jairus Byrd and Stephon Gilmore, though the latter will miss six to eight weeks with a wrist fracture—but this is still a defense with holes. That's why, even though they've moved up, the Bills are still No. 28 overall."

Oddsmaker.com
Bills over/under 6.5 wins. Under 6.5 is paying -140