Thursday, January 29, 2015

Super Bowl Gambling: The Prop Bets

by Steve

Since the Buffalo Bills will never make the playoffs, let alone make another Super Bowl, and the only thing we Bills fans have to do is root against the cheating cheater New England Patriots we have to gamble on the Super Bowl (run on sentence?).  We all know the game is a pick 'em and the over under is 50.  Everyone already bought some luck-of-the-draw SB squares.  Duh that shits easy.  So instead lets get into the nuanced art of PROP BETS!  Everyone loves a good proper.  Here are some of my favorites:

(all odds taken from oddsmaker.ag)

R Gronkowski Longest Reception over 22.5 (-135)
Not the best payout but Gronk is gonna get a 24 yard catch before busting out both knees while his back (again) cracks in half from a nice hit by Kam Chancellor right?

Longest Made Field Goal of the Game (NO FG-NO ACTION)  over 44.5 (-120)
I see Petey lookin for a quick 3 point lead in this game going for a 46 yard field goal.  As a Bills fan would it be shocking to not see a 47 yarder on natural grass?

Will the game be Decided by Exactly 3 Points yes (+300)
Don't the Patriots always only win Super Bowls by 3 points?  Then again they probably won't win so maybe this isn't a great bet hmm..

Will the New England Patriots Successfully Convert a 4th Down? Yes (+130)
This seems like the lock of the year.  Doesn't Tommy small balls make a short 4th and 1 every god damn game seemingly?

Will the 1st Quarter end in a tie? Yes (+300)
Kind of a stupid one but I like the payout and the chances especially if there isn't some dumb safety or something on the first play from scrimmage.

LeGarrette Blount - Total Rushing Yards - Must Play over 62.5 (even)
Initially I was going to go under all day because Belicheat always does a switcharoo when they game plan but the line may have reflected that idea, plus the payout is better.  Moreover I think the Patriots will be fumbling the ball all over the place with fully inflated balls.

Rob Gronkowski - Total Receiving Yards - Must Play over (+110)
Not sure if I actually like this line or not but the over pay out is much higher than I thought it would be.  He didn't go over vs the Colts but that game was over after the muffed fumble so why not pound the ball to this big dumb dufus.

Russell Wilson - Will He Throw an Interception yes (-160)
Bad payout but I can't imagine this guy not throwing a pick, didn't he throw 4 two weeks ago? Patriots have a pretty good secondary.

Marshawn Lynch - Total Rushing Yards over 88.5 (-130)
Bang this one.  The Seahawks down 15 points were STILL running the ball last game and that was with four freaking minutes left (then again Russ Wilson was probably concussed and had no clue what was going on).  Still, the century mark for Beeshmo is expected.

Marshawn Lynch - Total Receptions over 2.5 (even)
Beeshmo has had three or more receptions three times this season out of 18 games.  He had three against the Panthers and only one against the Packers albeit a huge one near the end of the game.


Later in the week the whole staff will have their picks against the spread the over under and maybe an additional prop or too. Yes, we know this is the last football gambling for a long time and that is depressing but at least we still have The Sports Geek for the rest of our gambling until football returns in August.  And on the way out bang TAILS on the coin flip -105 all hail the tail!

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