Bills 23 Ravens 20

By Steve

Someone save this moment in time for Coast, not only was I way off about this game but Coast actually predicted the score exactly. The Bills are now surprisingly 2-2 with a night game with the Browns in three days.

The Bills didn't look great (except for in the run defense) but eeked out a victory against a very respectable Baltimore team with rings on their fingers.

First the good, EJ had some good throws, a terrible fumble errr two, but made enough plays to win. He still has a ton of question marks surrounding him but looks like an NFL quarterback.

Aaron Williams either transformed into a real NFL player on Sunday or Steph Gilmore stole his jersey and played. Two picks, a game saving tackle and some clutch pass break ups, the guy was a stud. And that was playing corner when a year ago at the same position he looked destined for the CFL. Stunning.

Kristian Alonso is a force. Two more interceptions one as great and clutch as it gets and just running around like a mad man. It is as if he'll get a pick every week (he's tied for first in the league with 4 and one in three straight). He has stud written all over him.

Now the bad, Marrone went into shut down mode at halfn seemingly unwilling to try and win the game instead of just holding on. Usually this gets you beat but some how yesterday ot didn't.  This team left a ton of points out there and should have beat Baltimore by more.

Did Nate Hackett ever see a chance to run the ball he didn't like? The offense was as predictable as ever. They did rack up a lot of yards on the ground and did win but they could have done more.

The refs were awful. Three plays were reversed on review? As Wreck kept yelling during the game, the refs wanted the Ravens to stay in the game. Questionable calls all over the place, when the Ravens needed  it, or the Bills were ready to put it away you could count on a flag.

After the first stop towards the end of the game I was relatively confident Buffalo would win. The Bills made more plays, out ran an allegedly good running team and deserved to win. Now they have to beat Cleveland and we have a season. Just fix the fuckin bathrooms from pouring sewage on my feet as I piss Russ.

Week 4 NFL Picks

Steve 6-8-1 Best Bet 1-2

Falcons -2.5 v Patriots
Steelers -3 v Vikings
Ravens -3 @ Bills
Colts @ Jaguars under 42.5
Titans -3.5 v Jets


Wreck 6-9 Best Bet 2-1

Bills +3 v Ravens
Titans -3.5 v Jets
Patriots +2.5 @ Falcons
Eagles +11 @ Broncos
Cowboys -2 @ Chargers


Coast 8-6-1 Best Bet 1-2

Saints -6.5 v Dolphins
Falcons -2.5 v Patriots
Lions -3 v Bears
Chargers +2 v Cowboys
Broncos -11 v Eagles

Ravens at Bills Podcast preview

Steve and Coast breakdown the Buffalo Bills miserable lose to the Jets and look ahead to the Ravens and look at baseball

   




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Buffalo Bills Week 4 Power Rankings Compilation

Here is a compilation of the Bills power rankings on the major sites after three games:

ESPN 24:
Despite an embarrassing performance against a bad Jets team these geniuses have the Bills moving up two spots..
"The league's fastest offense isn't in Philadelphia. The Bills are averaging 21.4 seconds per play, six seconds faster than the league average."


Walterfootball 26:
The Bills move down three spots, but did they quote Coast?
"I must have received a dozen e-mails/texts/Facebook messages this weekend all asking why C.J. Spiller sucks so much. I didn't get to answer them all, but the appropriate response should be: "He's a Buffalo Bill."

Oh, and I unearthed another old GameCenter quote:

Remach baby it's paid back time Bills 24 Jets 10

I'll be sure to follow this wise man's gambling advice the next time Buffalo and New York square off.  "


Fox Sports 21:
The Bills lose ugly on the road and Billick doesn't see any problem with that keeping them at the same spot.
"The Bills were just 4-of-18 on third downs and failed to score a touchdown on three trips in the red zone. They have to be more efficient."


Yahoo! Sports 23:
Not a big fall only one spot.
"There are some interesting pieces here. Middle linebacker Kiko Alonso looks like he was a great pick. There's a lot to like in this draft class. That's how you build a winner."


CBS Sports 24:
Ol' Petey also moves the Bills up after an ugly road loss.
"When you start a rookie passer, you will have games like they had against the Jets. This is a year about growing."


PFT 25:
A hilarious pun from Florio as he moves the Bills down a measly spot.
"Forgot about circling the wagons. After Sunday, the Bills need to circle the gurneys."


Average spot 23.8 with the highest spot being 21 by Fox and 26 being the lowest by Walterfootball.  Inexplicably the Bills moved up in two different polls.


Now a look at the latest Sports Betting Odds for the upcoming Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills match up.  The line opened at Ravens -3.5 with the over under at 44.  The line hasn't moved since Monday other than the o/u fluctuating down a half point.  The Bills are 2-1 against the spread and have yet to be favored in a game in 2013.  There's always Cleveland and Jacksonville?  Ouch.

Coast's (Rational) Bills Jets Reaction

Everyone needs to CALM DOWN! Seriously, every single Monday following a Bills loss is overreaction Monday where all "fans" demand everyone in the organization should be fired and no one has any chance of being good. Good Lord.

Yesterday's game was horrible, I am not going to sit here and say that anything positive happened in this game. Three Jets OFFENSIVE players had career games. I spent the whole week thinking about how their offense sucks, they have no play makers, etc. Well...

1. Bilal Powell had 27 carries for 149 yards. This is his third season. He has never rushed for more than 78 yards in a game.

2. Stephon Hill had 3 catches for 108 yards and 1 touchdown. This was his first career 100 yard game and first touchdown catch since October 14, 2012.

3. Santonio Holmes had 5 catches for 154 yards and 1 touchdown. This was his first touchdown since September 16, 2012. Santonio Holmes has been in the league since 2006. He has had a pretty good career and once made a pretty big play in a Super Bowl. Sunday was the most yards receiving in a game of his career.

In total, the Jets offense had the ball for 34:13 and gained 513 yards of total offense. Geno Smith torched the Bills "secondary" for 331 yards. I put secondary in quotes because this was not an NFL secondary out there on Sunday. Everyone needs to relax a little bit on Geno Smith. This Bills secondary couldn't stop an ECIC Class C quarterback, let alone an NFL quarterback Sunday. The focal point of the Jets attack was none other than Justin Rogers. I don't even know if we were sure if Justin Rogers was going to make the team coming up to final cuts. Would it be Crezdon Butler or would it be Rogers? Good Lord that was a horrendous performance. Buffalo Rumblings tweeted today "Jets targeted Rogers' receiver 9 times. 6-9, 254 yards, 2 TD, and a 22-yard DPI." Can someone check to see if that is the worst cornerback performance in the history of the league because it is certainly the worst I ever saw. Rogers cost the Bills the game. If he makes one single play, the outcome could have been different.

The Jets defense completely shut down the Bills offense. Yeah, I love EJ, but his performance was terrible. He never looked comfortable. He was sacked 8 times. He held on to the ball too long. I will say however, I don't know how good his receiving core is and on top of that, the play calling was terrible. TJ Graham is a poor man's Lee Evans. Doesn't appear he can run a quality route if his life depended on it. All I ever see Graham do is run straight down field. Nate Hackett is way too predictable. It looked like the NFL was way over Hackett's head Sunday. How many times can Rex Ryan show the Cover 0 on third down before Nate can come up with a play to beat it. Seriously, the only play we can draw up is for all three of our WRs to run straight up field? Also, the draw run just doesn't work. When are we going to scrap it. Until we start running more with EJ or doing some play action passes out of that formation, the run is going to get stuffed. Spiller has been bad. Jackson had one good run yesterday of 59 yards. Besides that, Spiller/Jackson, the best 1-2 punch in the league, had 16 carries for 22 yards. I have seen Jackson and Spiller play now for a while, and I can assure you that they aren't the problem. The offensive line, sans our hideous left guard, is also the same unit as last year. Therefore, blame has to fall on one man and one man only, Nate Hackett. If I were Doug Marrone, I would be in his grill telling him he needs to figure this out ASAP or else he will be back in mid major college football in 3 months, or sooner.

The Bills got destroyed with injuries yesterday. McKelvin, Carrington, Williams, Dareus, Spiller...As of right now, I am not sure how serious the injuries are. Spiller/Williams should be fine next week. Carrington is out for the year. McKelvin is screwed with a hamstring injury. I am not sure about Dareus. All I know is the Bills need about 4 new cornerbacks before this weekend's game. The only saving grace is we are going up against Joe Flacco who in my opinion is a bottom third QB in the league.

I am not giving up yet. I love EJ, I love Marrone. They are going to get this thing straightened out. Have faith. 10-6, let's go.

Bills 20 Jets 27 immediate reaction

By Steve

Absolutely embarrassing loss bt the Bills at the New Jersey Jets tonight. Not only is Spiller Carrington Mckelvin and Dareus are hurt but the whole team was a joke.

5 worst player:

1. EJ manuel
Has this guy ever thrown a fourth down play in bounce? I'd take Bledsoe now over Manuel who is now 0-1 vs the only starting QB in the '13 draft. Pathetic performance.

2. Justin Rogers

If this guy is on the roster tuesday I'll be surprised. He literally cost the team the game makig Stephon Hill an NFL player for a day. Holy fuck you are a joke to cornerback play.

3. CJ Spiller
9 carries 9 yards in the first half and didnt bother playing in the second half, thank god.

4. The Jets
Twent penalties, clearly they didnt want to win. Rex Ryan some how makes Doug Marrone look incompetant ane thats rare but the Jets win and he Bills lose.

5. Who gives a fuck
The Bills are a joke, they cant run they have no QB and the defense is a siv. Hoky smokes

3-13

Coast's Week 3 Preview: Bills at Jets

What a win last week, but now we all have to move on to the New York football Jets. How will Erik James respond after a last second game winning touchdown pass? How will the team respond after such an exhilarating win? Well, it is as simple as this. If the Bills win, game on. If the Bills lose, they suck and are going 6-10 at best.

The Bills haven't won in New Jersey since October 18, 2009 (Sanchize 5 INT game that probably cost the Bills about 5 draft spots). The three game losing streak in New York has given us a little bit of everything. 2010 gave us a 38-7 complete laugher. 2011 gave us a gut wrenching 28-24 heart-breaker thanks to SJ 13 and 2012 gave us another blowout on opening day, when hope was so high in Buffalo, of course for no reason whatsoever.

The 2013 edition of Bills at Jets is completely different than the past. Nothing that has happened over the past 3 years can be used to preview what will happen tomorrow. The Bills have a new quarterback, new coach, new GM, new President...the entire franchise is completely different. The Jets also have a new quarterback and new GM, but the one guy who stuck around, for now, is Rex Ryan.

The major story of this week 3 AFC East showdown is the battle of the top two quarterbacks taken in the 2013 NFL draft, EJ Manuel and Geno Smith. In the months leading up to the draft, Geno Smith was touted as the best quarterback in the draft. EJ Manuel, propelled by a great Senior Bowl, came out of nowhere to be the Bills choice with the 17th pick in the draft. Geno Smith was taken early in the 2nd round. I know it is too early to tell who was the better quarterback, but I can tell you this much, there is no way I would trade EJ Manuel for Geno Smith and 100 first round picks right now. Through two games, EJ Manuel has completed 68.2% of his passes, thrown for 446 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. His QB rating is 95.9, 9th in the league. Geno Smith has completed 53.4% of his passes, thrown for 470 yards, 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions. His QB rating is 55.2, 32nd in the league.

Another huge storyline for this week 3 showdown is Mike Pettine returning to go up against his old boss Rex Ryan. A lot of people claimed that the only reason why Mike Pettine looked good as a defensive coordinator is because Rex Ryan actually called the defensive plays. I think most Bills fan would argue that through the first two games this season. The Bills defense has seemingly taken a 180 degree turn compared to the 2012 product. The Bills at times made Tom Brady look pedestrian and made Cam Newton look completely lost a lot of times during last week's game. The defense has definitely outperformed expectations, and if it weren't for some late 4th quarter struggles against the run, I would argue that they have played exceptionally well through two games. Jairus Byrd is traveling with the team this week and if he can suit up and contribute to any extent, that should help a secondary that has definitely overachieved thus far this season.

Offensively for the Bills, I am looking for big performances from two players, Stevie Johnson and CJ Spiller. Stevie Johnson has always claimed to own Revis, but now with Revis gone, he will get his shot at Antonio Chromartie. Not many, if any, corners in this league have shown the ability to cover Johnson, and if he could just catch, he could be very tough to stop. He needs to step up big. CJ Spiller has been rather quiet thus far in 2013. He ran for 100 yards last week, but didn't make a ton of noise until his 48 yard run in the 4th quarter. Spiller ran for 228 yards against the Jets last season and added another 97 receiving. On opening day, Spiller torched the Jets for 169 yards including a 59 yard touchdown run. A big game for Spiller will take a lot of heat off EJ on his first road start.

As far as the Jets go, their offense is a bunch of no names. Stephen Hill, Santonio Holmes and Jeremy Kerley are their top 3 WRs. Hill has been Geno's favorite target through 2 games with 10 receptions. Kerly and Holmes have 7 combined. Kellen Winslow, a late acquisition by the Jets, also has 10 receptions. Basically, I am not scared of the Jets offense at all. The Jets have scored 28 points combined through 2 games, 4th worst in the league. Defense is another story though. The Jets have allowed the 2nd fewest yards through 2 games and the 2nd fewest points. They did play Tampa and the Patriots in a monsoon though so I am not sure HOW good they truly are. I know they will be solid with Rex involved, but top 2 in the league, we will see.

The Bills are +2.5 this Sunday. I love the Bills 27-10 and they are my best bet of the week. After Baltimore loses big at home to the Texans, is it possible we will be favorites week 4 at home vs. the defending champs? You never know...

Week 3 NFL Picks

Picks for week 3 of the NFL season:

Steve 5-4-1 Best Bet 1-1

Giants @ Panthers over 47
Ravens +2.5 v Texans
Cardinals @ Saints over 49
Redskins pick v Lions
Packers @ Bengals under 49.5


Wreck 5-5 Best Bet 2-0

Jaguars +19 @ Seahawks
Jets -1.5 v Bills
Packers -3 @ Bengals
Buccaneers @ Patriots over 44
Raiders +15.5 @ Broncos


Coast 6-3-1 Best Bet 1-1

Bills +1.5 @ Jets
Lions pick @ Redskins
Packers -3 @ Bengals
Falcons +1 @ Dolphins
Patriots -7 vs Buccaneers

Buffalo Bills at NY Jets podcast preview

Steve and Coast review the epic win against the Panthers and look ahead to the Jets game.

   




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Buffalo Bills Power Rankings Compilation Week 3

Week 3 Bills Power Rankings

ESPN:
The Bills move up 3 spots to 26 behind four teams that are 0-2.
"EJ Manuel was 6-for-8 for 51 yards, including the game-winning TD pass, on the final drive Sunday. Mario Williams' team-record 4.5 sacks helped, too."


Walterfootball:
 23, moving up three spots but they are still behind the team (Carolina) that they just beat..
"I wrote last week that "I need to see one more strong performance from the Bills (including a win) to move them up my power rankings."

Well, they got their win, but they did their best to give the game away with two terrible turnovers in their own territory. Besides, it's impossible to know if E.J. Manuel would've put that game-winning drive together had the Panthers not lost half their defense to injuries."


Foxsports:
Buffalo moves up three spots to 21
"Mario Williams had 4.5 sacks on Sunday -- a franchise record and a career-high."

CBS Sports:
25, moving up four spots still directly behind three 0-2 teams
" EJ Manuel is off to a good start as a rookie quarterback. He's proving me wrong in a big way"

PFT:
With a hilarious pun Florio has the Bills moving up a strong one spot to 24.
"After years of toiling, the Bills could quickly benefit from some Manuel labor.  (Does acknowledging that one is a little cheesy make it any better?  I didn’t think so.) "

Yahoo! Sports:
22 up five spots, but that was not a shaky PI call, I call BS
"I like EJ Manuel, but let's not forget that if they don't get a pretty shaky pass interference call late against Carolina, they're 0-2 with two home losses."



Billick/Foxsports have the Bills the highest at 21 and ESPN has the Bills lowest at 26 for an average spot of 23.5

Coast's Reaction: Bills vs. Panthers

EJ Manuel, the rookie from Florida State, starting in his 2nd game, looked the part of the rookie for much of this game. He missed open receivers on more than one occasion. There were multiple plays that seemed like Manuel and his receivers were not on the same page. In back to back drives late in the third and early in the fourth quarter Manuel fumbled and threw an interception, both of which deep in Bills territory. Then on the next drive, after a long Spiller run, Manuel misfired horribly and the Bills had to settle for a field goal. What I love the most so far about Manuel is his ability to forget what has happened and rise to the occasion. The Bills got the ball at the 20 yard line with 98 seconds to go and no timeouts. For whatever reason, people seemed confident. This is the confidence that Manuel seems to instill in fans that no Bills quarterback since Jim Kelly has been able to do. Manuel engineered an 80 yard march that culminated with a 2 yard touchdown pass to Stevie Johnson and a Bills last second win. We haven't seen many finishes like this in Orchard Park over the past 13 years and we can all hope this game is just the beginning of great things for EJ Manuel.

I need to give credit where credit is due. Stevie Johnson stepped it up today and made some plays. Stevie had some key receptions on the Bills game winning drive. He also contributed a key 45 yard reception on the Bills first touchdown drive. Johnson ended the game with 8 receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown. Rookie wide receiver Robert Woods had 4 catches for 68 yards and made a clutch catch on a 2 point conversion attempt in the 3rd quarter. CJ Spiller eclipsed 100 yards rushing even with a long 30 plus yard run called back on a hold. Fred Jackson made key receptions on the game winning drive and also scored the Bills first touchdown. In total, the offense gained 436 yards compared to Carolina's 308.

Contributing to the win in a big way was the Bills defense, specifically Mario Williams. I have trashed Mario Williams as much as anyone since his first game here. In order to earn his salary, he needs to take over games and be a presence out there. He hasn't done that for the most part since he started here. 4.5 sacks (team record) and multiple pressures against Cam Newton is making his presence felt. How about the performance by rookie middle linebacker Kiko Alonso? He seemed to be making play after play all over the field. He made a great play on the interception on Carolina's first drive and helped on the sack that ended the game. Kiko had 10 tackles in all. The Bills secondary held their own again despite being short handed. Leodis McKelvin actually looks like he may deserve to play cornerback in the league. He was matched up almost exclusively on Steve Smith and Smith only managed 52 yards receiving. The Bills sacked Newton 6 times for 46 yards, compared to Manuel who was only sacked once. Through 2 games, without arguably their 2 best defensive backs in Gilmore and Byrd, the Bills have been able to contain 2 of the best/most dangerous quarterbacks in the NFL and make each of them look rather pedestrian.

It wasn't all good for the Bills though. Despite thoroughly out playing Carolina in the third quarter in my opinion, the Bills made multiple incredibly dumb plays. The first was a holding call on a punt on 4th and 18. Say what you will about the call, but it was the right one. Sommers tackled the Panthers player and since it was before the punt, it resulted in an automatic first down. This seems like a harsh result, but it is the rule and the Bills need to be smarter. To make matters worse, Newton hit the Buffalo killer Ted Ginn for a TD a few plays later to give Carolina a 14-6 lead. After a great answer by Manuel and the Bills, the Bills defense stopped Carolina and on a third and long incomplete pass Aaron Williams took an unnecessary shot at a Panthers receiver. I like Williams at safety, but this play was one of the dumbest I have ever seen in my life. The ball was not catchable and out of bounds. Luckily, the Bills stopped Carolina again and forced the punt. The next 2 Bills drives resulted in turnovers. Despite all of this, the Bills were somehow only down 20-14.

The crazy third quarter made me somewhat forget about how irritated I was with the play calling of Nate Hackett. I thought he was way too conservative. When a draw was called on 2nd and 18, I almost gave up. I thought the Bills coaching staff was in general a little too conservative, with the exception of the two point conversion in the third quarter (which is a no brainer decision in my mind, but something most coaches don't do). What was really bad was when Marrone opted to kick a field goal on 4th and about 4 or 5 down 20-14 with 6 minutes left from the Carolina 30. It didn't end up mattering, but only because Ron Rivera might be the worst coach in the NFL. When you know you need 7 points to win and it is late in the game you should go for it...not kick a field goal and hope to get the ball back to score again. That isn't playing to win. On top of that, it was a 49 yard attempt, which is far from a gimmie for a guy who missed a 42 yarder on the same side of the field earlier in the game. After the FG,  Carolina had the ball and the lead up 20-17. They marched down the Bills throat and killed the clock on the way. They had the ball at the Bills 30 at the 2 minute warning and after 2 runs and 2 Bills timeouts, they faced a 3rd and 5 from the 25. Instead of going for the kill, they ran a draw and were stopped one yard short. It was now 4th and 1 from the 21 yard line. Rivera's options: 1) go for it...you make it, game is over, you don't make it, you have a 3 point lead and the Bills mentality is probably to kick a field goal. Worst case scenario is overtime; 2) the other option is to kick a field goal to go up 6 and set yourself up for a loss with a Bills touchdown. All they needed was one yard to win. Of course, Rivera kicked it, the Panthers took a 6 point lead and next thing you know, the Bills win on a last second touchdown. (For a non-Bills fan) This was a very predictable result. Ron Rivera is 2-14 in games decided by single digits. I will be shocked if he lasts the season.

Great win for the Bills. Incredible day at OBD. Big game next week against the Jets (line opened at Jets -2).

Week 2 NFL Picks

Week 2 picks

Steve 2-2-1 (Best Bet 1-0)

Eagles -7 v Chargers
Dolphins v Colts over 43
Bears -6 v Vikings
Seahawks -3 v 49ers
Redskins v Packers over 49.5


Wreck 2-3 (Best Bet 1-0)

Titans +9.5 @ Texans
Bills +3 v Panthers
Jaguars +6 @ Raiders
Buccaneers +3.5 v Saints
Broncos @ Giants under 55


Coast 4-0-1 (Best Bet 1-0)

Saints -3.5 @ Buccaneers
Giants +5 v Broncos
Lions -1.5 @ Cardinals
Jets +11.5 v Patriots
Bills +3 v Panthers

Coast's Panthers @ Bills Week 2 Preview

My bad on the late posting of this preview...but it is 2013, and I am sure anyone reading this has a smart phone... With another gut wrenching home opener in the books, the Bills will host the Carolina Panthers, who, just like Buffalo, lost at home by a narrow margin to one of the preseason Super Bowl favorites. The Panthers fell 12-7 to the Seahawks (Yup, just as I thought, the Seahawks covered).

Interestingly enough, Carolina is a 3 point favorite at this moment according to sportsbook.com. This makes no sense. You're telling me that if the Bills were playing at Carolina this week, they would be roughly 9 point underdogs? Carolina was a 7-9 football team in 2012 and their coach is Ron Rivera (transition lenses). The Saints are 3 point favorites on the road at Tampa Bay (who lost to the Jets) so either Vegas thinks the Bills are much worse than Tampa, OR Carolina is as good or better than the Saints. Interesting.

 As mentioned, the Panthers lost 12-7 at home to Seattle. Their offense was completely shut down. EJ took some heat this week by some idiots for not throwing the ball down field enough, his yards passing were weak, etc. Well, Cam threw for a solid buck 25 in week 1 and I am sure Panther fans aren't ready to run him out of town and throw DEREK DEREK DEREK (Anderson) back in there. Yeah, the Seahawks defense/secondary is among the best in the league, no argument there from me. I do believe that Cam is a scarier player than Brady at this point though. In 2012 Cam threw 19 TD passes, had 3,869 yards passing and also had 741 yards rushing along with 8 rushing TDs. This guy can hurt you in many ways.

Steve Smith is also still playing and is still somehow productive with 1,174 receiving yards in 2012. Smith, at 34, is still better than any pathetic WR on our roster. He had 6 for 51 and a TD week 1, which is a lot more than SJ can say...but at least Stevie can catch the ball when it matters...oh wait...The Bills have the worst of the two Steve's in this game without a doubt.

DeAngelo Williams is the main running back with Jonathan Stewart out but he is now 5 years removed from his 1,500 yard season and he is on the wrong side of 30. I am about as worried about D-Will as I was about Shane Vereen...not a good sign for the Bills. Greg Olsen will post a bigger challenge to the Bills defense at tight end than whoever the Patriots trotted out there. New England did not complete a single pass to a tight end in that game.

Should we really be scared of this offense (they do have Ted Ginn...who had his best career game against the Bills)? Well, according to football outsiders advanced stats (#analytics) the Panthers offense ranked 8th in the NFL in 2012. What about the Carolina defense? All I have heard this week is how great their front 7 is and based on last week's game, it is hard to disagree. My boy Marshawn had Spiller esque numbers with 17 carries for 43 yards. The Seahawks only managed 70 yards rushing. Just in case people don't know, Dwan Edwards is a member of this front 7. The front 7 also consists of Star Lotulelei, the rookie from Utah, Jon Beason and 2012 defensive rookie of the year Luke Kuechly. This group will post as much of a challenge for the Bills offense as Wilfork, Spikes, Mayo, etc. did last week.

The Carolina secondary does not seem as impressive. The 2012 version of EJ Manuel, Russel Wilson, threw for 320 yards and 0 interceptions. He also completed 76% of his throws. The Bills will have to open it up a little more tomorrow as this match up presents an opportunity for Manuel, Woods, Graham, Hogan, Easley, Chandler, Gragg, Spiller, Jackson, Choice and the gang. I may be forgetting some WR, but those are the only guys that haven't shown that they can't make a play when it matters.

According to FO #analytics, this defense ranked 12th in the league in 2012. It is pretty impressive that a team with the 8th best offense and 12th best defense went 7-9. Actually, it makes perfect sense with Ron Rivera. As far as the Bills go...I am hoping EJ gets a little more freedom this week, both with his arm and legs. Spiller has to be as motivated as ever after the rampage and his dismal performance in week 1. Johnson hopefully won't get the ball thrown his way in crunch time. Graham needs to actually show up. Chandler needs to not drop 20 yard passes.

Hopefully the Bills can get into single digit penalties this week as well. 10 penalties last week, many of which were critical, are unacceptable (New England only had 4) and this has been a trend all preseason. I still love Marrone, but if the penalties keep up, it is going to take a toll on me.

Defensively, Gilmore still out obviously and Byrd is just a joke. The Bills secondary got torched by a WR in the 2nd half last week that was injured to the point where after the game it is determined he is going to miss a month. Didn't stop Amendola from having 10 catches, 7 of which for a first down. I would really like to see the Bills get a little bit more of a pass rush this week as well. This is a broken record, but a Mario Williams sighting would be nice. I don't think Carolina is good...definitely not good enough to be -3 vs. anyone on the road. I love the Bills in this game. I am holding out hope that they are actually decent. My prediction is 23-13, Bills.

Carolina Panthers v Buffalo Bills podcast preview

Steve and Coast revisit the Patriots game and look towards the Panthers in week 2. (for best results allow to full load before playing)

   
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Week 2 Bills Power Rankings Compilation

A compilation of the Buffalo Bills power rankings from select sites heading into week 2:

ESPN:
Bills lose and they move ahead of Cleveland to claim #29
"Buffalo limited EJ Manuel's movement well in his return from knee surgery. Manuel was 18-for-25 for 150 yards and a pair of touchdowns out of the shotgun."

Walterfootball:
Bills move up one spot to 26
"I need to see one more strong performance from the Bills (including a win) to move them up my power rankings. A lot of weird stuff happened in that New England contest, including Stevan Ridley's non-contact fumble returned for a touchdown. Would Buffalo have been competitive if that never happened? I'm not so sure."

PFT:
They start theirs now so Bills start at 25
"They know how to knock on the door.  They still can’t find the knob."

CBS Sports:
26
 "I liked EJ Manuel in college, even more at the Senior Bowl and was convinced after my camp visit that he was the real deal. The Bills will be dangerous in the second half of this season."

Fox Sports:
"The Bills move up 3 spots to 24 (with some sorta racism by default?)
EJ Manuel reminds me a lot of Steve McNair and Sunday was just a glimpse into the success he can have in this league. Not too many people can say they had Tom Brady on the ropes in their first career start.  "

Yahoo! Sports:
Moved to 2 spots to 27
"Part of their move up is that quarterback EJ Manuel looked healthy, and pretty good."

Patriots 23 Bills 21 - Coast's Reaction

So I was only 50% correct with my prediction of 38-17. I was obviously wrong about the result and the final score, but I was right about New England being an average team. For the first time in about 10 years, I didn't have the fear of God in me when New England had the ball.

The new era of Bills football began with another familiar crushing defeat. This game can be added to the list of demoralizing home losses on opening day along with Jacksonville in 2004 and Denver in 2007 to name a few. The reason why the Bills lost is pretty simple in my opinion.

Steve Johnson can't catch. Johnson has had so many critical jobs in his career. It seems like every single time we have had a big moment in a big game against a good team, he has made a critical drop. We haven't had many of these moments, which makes all of his drops so memorable. Overtime vs. the Steelers, drops the ball in the end zone. 4th quarter against the Jets, drops the ball on what may have been a touchdown. This time, with about 8:50 to go in the 4th quarter, Johnson drops a reasonably well thrown pass at the Patriots 48 that would have been a first down inside Patriots territory. Who knows what would have ended up happening if he caught this pass...but the way the game was going, even a field goal on that possession would have increased the Bills chances of winning significantly. What percentage of the nearly 70,000 strong in the stadium knew the game was over as soon as that ball hit the turf? I say 100%. Steve Johnson came into the game talking about how no one on the Patriots could cover him. He follows that up with less than 40 yards receiving and a critical drop. He also blew off the media after the game and on Monday morning.

The second reason why we lost is Nate Hackett's play calling was too predictable and conservative. The Bills lined up in the same 3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE formation pretty much every single play. They ran the same draw play basically every time they ran the ball. The play action pass was rarely  used. It seemed like every time we got a few good runs in a row, we would run the same play again and get stuffed. The Bills had 13 plays in which they needed less than 5 yards to go for a first down and ran on 9 of them, and ran the same draw play each time. I thought Manuel showed enough that he could have been trusted to do more during the game, but he just wasn't. It was obvious New England spent the past 2 weeks game planning for Spiller, so the play action would have worked especially well when he was out there. It was a little disappointing.

The Bills also had some critical penalties. There were multiple illegal hands to the face penalties that cost big plays. Robert Woods had a 20 yard pass negated on a penalty. Jackson had a first down reception negated by a penalty. The Bills had 10 penalties for 75 yards. The Patriots only had 4 for 36 yards. That is something that needs to be fixed immediately. It was a problem in the preseason and has continued into the regular season.

Some people are blaming the turnovers as contributing to the loss. Obviously the turnovers hurt, but New England gave the Bills some gifts too. The Spiller fumble directly resulted in a TD, but the Patriots fumble that Searcy returned for a TD was a gift. The Goodwin fumble also resulted in a TD, but Rogers INT led to a Bills TD and the Patriots also fumbled at the goal line. I would say the impact of turnovers in this game was pretty much a wash.

People have also been criticizing the hurry up offense in the 4th quarter for contributing to the loss. This has absolutely no bearing on the outcome. First, our entire offensive system is based on the no huddle...so now all of a sudden people wanted the Bills to huddle? Second, the Patriots had all of their time outs. The chances we would run out the clock there were slim to none. Third, we were only up 1 point against Tom Brady. Just like Marrone said, we still needed to score to win the game. I have no problem with the hurry up on the last drive. The only problem that I may have had was to not run it with Spiller on first down. Everyone on Earth could have expected that, which is why it got stuffed.

People are complaining about the defense and Mario Williams. The defense held the Patriots to 23 points. They had zero real touchdown drives (one was about 9 yards and the other about 30). The secondary was missing its two best players. The Bills did get pressure. Brady only completed 56% of his passes and looked uncomfortable a lot of times. The defensive performance actually gives me some hope for the rest of the season. I mean think about what the Bills were working with. Aaron Williams' first game at safety. Byrd out. Gilmore out. Rogers and undrafted rookie Nikel Roby playing significant numbers of snaps. Kiko Alonso played every single snap and it was his first game as a rookie. On top of all that, they were going up against arguably the GOAT. I thought they did well.

I think that everyone needs to just relax. It is one game out of 16. The overreaction by so many Bills fans after one game is just so ridiculous. I wonder what all of these idiots would be saying if Steve Johnson caught that third down pass and the Bills won the game? I would venture to guess they would be anointing Doug Marrone as a HOFer and not calling for his job. Wake up people.

As an aside, the Bills are 3 point underdogs at home against Carolina. Someone please explain this line to me. The Panthers only won 1 more game than the Bills last year and lost their opening day game at home as well. You mean to tell me the Panthers would be -9 if this game was home for them? Their coach is Ron Rivera for Christ sake. Its back to back weeks of the Bills being one of the biggest locks of the week.

LET's GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Week 1 NFL Picks

Steve Wreck and now Coast will be picking 5 games against the spread with our best bets each week throughout the season.  Last year Steve finished 51-41-3 best bet 7-11-2 and Wreck finished 51-45-1 through the Super Bowl. In 2011 Steve finished 59-35 and Wreck finished 49-44 fwiw.

Week 1 Picks

Steve

Tampa Bay @ NY Jets under 40
Buffalo +10.5 v New England
Cincinnati +3 @ Chicago
Cleveland -1 v Miami
Minnesota +4.5 @ Detroit


Wreck

Carolina +4 v Seattle
Buffalo +10.5 v New England
Oakland +10.5 @ Indianapolis
Green Bay +4.5 @ San Francisco
Jacksonville +4 v Kansas City


Coast

New Orleans -3 v Atlanta
Chicago -3 v Cincinatti
NY Jets +4 v  Tampa Bay
Seattle -4 @ Carolina
Buffalo +10.5 v New England

2013 Buffalo Bills season preview podcast

by Steve

Coast Steve Wreck And a special guest start in the first podcast of the 2013 season:

right click save as to download, or let it load all the way

   

2013 NFL Predictions: Total Wins

by Steve

The "professional" prognosticators were posted here and coast previewed Bills v Pats, now it is my time to start dropping some knowledge/predictions.

Total wins for all 32 teams based on our boys at Oddsmaker (pay out of the under is next to the win total):

Arizona Cardinals 5.5, under +145
Carson Palmer? Now the toughest division, surprisingly, in football after being the worst for a decade?  I'll take that extra juice and the under.

Atlanta Falcons 10, under -140
Some expecting a fall from last year but I think Matty Daddy Ice is progressing nicely, although I don't like their silverfoxed head coach. 11 wins are in order

Baltimore Ravens 8.5, under even
They may have just been getting really lucky last year at the right time but can't that be said for a lot of teams that get to the Super Bowl?  They have a great home field advantage and their division is meh. Takin the over

Buffalo Bills 6.5, under -140
Little talent, mediocre rookie head coach, no depth, young players all over the field expected to make huge contributions right away?  Not gonna win much money but I'll take the under. 5-11

Carolina Panthers 7, under +135
An interesting team that could be a blue print for the Bills.  Their coach is abysmal and Newton needs to keep upright.  Are there enough weapons on offense for this team to make the leap back to relevancy? Not with ol' transition lens. under (I'd love a push actually)

Chicago Bears 8.5, under +125
Another enigma and I had to verify that the canuck Trestman was their head coach.  Take under even though I like me some Jay Cutler.

Cincinnati Bengals 8.5 under +125
This team just makes the playoffs despite an inspiration-less  head coach.  The defense is also nasty and probs because they have to practice outside. Easy over.

Cleveland Browns 6.5 under even
Huh?  This doesn't make a lot of sense.  This team sucks.  They have a new coach every other year, a 31 year old second year QB.  I don't know if Trent Richardson is durable enough but he is a god damn beast.  Under.

Dallas Cowboys 8.5, under -110
I feel like if any team could push on an o/u 8.5 bet it would be Jerra [sic] and the 'boys. (a tie is considered a loss tho).  They're goin under sorry Big D.

Denver Brocos 11.5 under -140
There has to be a few teams that win 12 or 13 wins so this team is as good as any to do that.  Plus that division is weaaakkkk. Over

Detroit Lions 7.5, under +140
Do or die for asshole Schwartz right?  It is the Lions so I'm takin the under.

Green Bay Packers 10.5, under -10
Aaron Rodgers is a pretty good regular season QB so I'll pencil them in for 11 wins.

Houston Texans 10.5, under -150
Not gonna win a ton with an under bet here so I'll ride with Schaub to another wildcard weekend win then lose in the divisional round again. Over

Indianapolis Colts 8.5, under +105
Is all the luck over already in Indy?  Tennessee still sucks, Jax is worse, but 8-8 isn't even a bad year. Under

Jacksonville Jaguars 5, under -115
Teddy Bridgewater watch is already under way. 4-12, under!

KC Chiefs 7.5, under +125
A new head coach and quarterback retreads (wait what?) have to be an improvement but just 'cause a team had a bunch of "pro bowlers" don't mean shit.  Plus I hate their first pick. under

Miami Dolphins 7.5, under 125
Tannehill? Under

Minnesota Vikings 7.5, -140
Christian Ponder isn't good but their running back is. I'm not positive that's worth 8 wins but I need a couple overs to even things out. 8-8 and over 7.5

New England Patriots 11, under -165
Perplexing unless you think Gronk will be hobbled all year and the genius drafting of undrafted players to play wide receiver isn't genius.  Why doesn't this team load up whilst they still have a really good quarterback? Fuck, they'll still win 11 or 12 so I'll bang the over.

New Orleans Saints 9.5, under +105
Tough division will lead to only 9 wins, unless they pay their players to hit the opponent really hard again.

New York Giants 9, under -120
Does this team ever win more than 9 games? Eli! Over!

New York Jets 6, under -135
This team is the more over covered awful team in all of sports. Go away and die. Under

Oakland 5.5, under -170
Anyone that feels bad for Matt Flynn just look at his bank account. Pryor is my boy and six wins is doable. Over

Philadelphia Eagles 7 under +120
An interesting team soley because of grimey p.o.s. fat Chip Kelly. Where is your neck? .500 and over.

Pittsburgh Steelers 9.5 -130
Like stealing candy from a baby. This under is cashe allll day.

San Diego Chargers 7.5, under -130
Least interesting team in the league? Probs. Under

San Francisco 49ers 11.5, under -150
How did I go ftom not munding these guys to outright hating then? Maybe because they are a thousand times better than the Bills. But i gotta go under in that division.

Seattle Seahawks 10.5, under even
Easy home schedule afds up to 11 wins and the over

St Louis Rams 7.5 under even
Fish dawg needs to start winning, same goes for Sam Brad. I could see 8 wins.

Tampa Bay Bucs 7.5, under +120
Greg Schiano looks like a genius by jumping off that burning shipwreck at Rutgers but Im not sure he can win in the NFL. Under.

Tennessee Titans 6.5, under -125
This team is the Bills. Under.

Washington Redskins 8.5, under -140
Surprising that the money is going on the under, wont this team only get better? Over

Week 1 Preview: Patriots @ Bills

-Coast

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The Bills will open the season with their rookie, stud, guaranteed future pro bowl, rookie of the year, MVP, Super Bowl champion, future hall of fame quarterback, Erik James Manuel at home against the New England Patriots. Alright...that could be a stretch...but the reason why it awesome is for the first year in the past, I don't know, 27 years since Kelly's debut, it is actually NOT impossible.

Does anyone actually think the Bills are going to win this game? YEP...me, and here is why: the Bills are going to be better than 2012, and Patriots are going to be worse, they have to. Now, I am definitely not an expert on what the Patriots did in the off season, especially on defense, but I do know that they have lost basically their whole offense...Welker, the murderer, Gronk, Lloyd and whoever else they had that caught passes. Brady is playing with a bunch of no-namers. New England's receivers this weekend are Danny Amendola (who we will get to in a minute), Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater, Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce. Gronk might play even with his surgically repaired...entire body...but if he doesn't, their tight end will be Michael Hoomanawanui. Yep, that is his real last name.

Back to Amendola...I think it is HILARIOUS that anyone thinks this guy is going to step in and replace Wes Welker...who has torched the Bills since he has been on the Patriots. Here are Welker's numbers vs. the Bills in just the past two seasons: 37 receptions, 468 yards and 2 touchdowns. I understand that Amendola did not have Tom Brady, but his best season included 85 catches for a whopping 689 yards. He has 7 career touchdowns in 4 years. He has played 12 games total in the past 2 years and is ALREADY hurt with a groin injury. This guy is a bum. The Pats wide receiver corps are unproven to say the least...and Amendola is not even a poor man's Wes Welker. I know that the Bills secondary is banged up and basically sucks...but they might be BETTER than the patriots receivers.

Whatever, the Patriots have Brady, they will score 30 points if you line up Steve and I at WR and T-wreck at H back. If they don't, that Bill Belicheat defense will certainly shut down the Bills rookie quarterback. I say...not so fast. The Pats defense sucked in 2012 (25th in yards allowed per game). On top of that, the Bills offense has lit it up the past two years against the Cheatriots. They are averaging 442 yards per game in the past 4 games against the mastermind. Even more amazing, the 4th best QB in team history Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged 2.5 touchdowns and 341 yards per game. He threw for over 300 in all 4 games. The Bills also averaged 28.5 points per game. I think it is extremely possible this offense has a lot of success Sunday. First, EJ Manual COULD be better than Fitzpatrick (Fitz did throw 11 INTs in these games). Second, the Bills have better WRs. I would take Stevie, Woods, Graham & Goodman over Stevie, Don Jones, Nelson...I am done, I just puked. Third, the Bills will have the best player on the field UNQUESTIONABLY in CJ Spiller. In the game at Foxboro last year, Spiller had 13 touches for 131 yards. If my math is correct, that is 10 yards per touch. He lit them up (the funny part about this is that Fred Jackson had 20 touches for 115 yards and Spiller was on the bench the whole final drive). This time, Spiller won't get 1/3 of the touches. He will get 4/5 of the touches...and I am going out on a limb and predicting a 200 yard from scrimmage game from Spiller Sunday.

Another reason the Bills could (are going to) win the game is coaching. The Bills 2012 staff was probably one of the worst in the history of the league. Dave Wannstedt was the defensive coordinator. Chan Gailey was the head coach and the play caller. These guys were good coaches back in...never. I know the Bills defense under Gailey produced possibly the worst three year stretch in team history, but I blame a lot of that on coaching. The Bills starting defense (assuming Byrd is the starter and when Gilmore is healthy) includes 8 first and second round picks. Is there any way all of these guys suck? I hope not. Hopefully we see substantial improvement with a coaching staff that seems to have a clue. Mario Williams, Marcel Dareus, Aaron Williams and Alex Carrington can't possibly be worse than they were in 2012. Kiko Alonso has potential to be a stud. Kyle Williams is one year closer to retirement. McKelvin is about to turn the corner I can feel it. Brooks and Rogers are playing for their careers. Nigel Bradham is from FSU. Manny Lawson, Jerry Hughes...these guys are going to get after the quarterback. This defense is going to surprise some people...I guarantee it.

The Bills are getting 11 at some places. I am taking the Bills money line. Every year there is a team that surprises everyone and why can't this year's team be the Bills? They fit the mold...young team, rookie QB, lot of speed and talent on both sides of the ball, rookie/young coaching staff. Bills 38 Patriots 17 in a laugher. The game will be over mid 3rd quarter.

2013 Buffalo Bills Season Preview: Media Predictions

by Steve

The season starts in 5 days and although everyone pretends to not care what all the pundits think all these fuckin websites put out preseason rankings and predictions so some one must be reading them.  Here is a compilation of the lame stream media's predictions:

ESPN Preseason Power Rankings:

Bills 30th "Jeff Tuel is the starter (for now). Tuel ranked 64th in FBS in opponent-adjusted Total QBR last season at Washington State and gets the Pats in Week 1."

Bill Barnwell (grantland)
He has the Bills as one of eight cellar dwellers. "Even if Buffalo gets a better campaign from Mario Williams in his second year with the team, the promise of a playoff run still seems years away.
Best-Case Scenario: Manuel and C.J. Spiller do their best Robert Griffin–and–Alfred Morris impression, and the big names on the Buffalo defense do their best impression of the impact they were supposed to have. The Bills sneak into the playoffs at 10-6."

His worst case scenario consisted of a Home Improvement youtube video. Ouch


The Buffalo News:
Mark Gaughan 6-10
Kay Skurski 5-11
Tim Graham 6-10
Jerry Sullivan 3-13 (he has Miami and Cleveland as his wild car picks [ha])

Walterfootball
Bills 26th "E.J. Manuel's poise in the pocket during his two preseason games convinced me that the Bills will be competitive in most of their games this year. Buffalo fans have to be thrilled about this because having Kevin Kolb as the starter would be disastrous. All opposing defenses would need to do is put a wet mat on the field, and the Bills would be done for."

Pete Prisco
3-13

Bleacher Report
Bills 28th "The defense will rely on the front seven getting a pass rush, something they've struggled to do outside of Jerry Hughes' exceptional play in the preseason. The secondary has talent—notably Jairus Byrd and Stephon Gilmore, though the latter will miss six to eight weeks with a wrist fracture—but this is still a defense with holes. That's why, even though they've moved up, the Bills are still No. 28 overall."

Oddsmaker.com
Bills over/under 6.5 wins. Under 6.5 is paying -140