Friday, May 25, 2012

Are Bills fans over confident?

by Steve

Has there been a May like this in recent Buffalo Bills history?  People are actually talking about the Bills in the freaking month of May!  The hype is palpable, the confidence is everywhere and hopes are sky high.  Not to be the Debbiedowner contrarian but aren't we all a little over confident?

There are a few reasons to dispute the over confidence with the Bills.  One, national commentators are loving the Bills, including Colin Cowherd and Bill Simmons (both love the Bills over 7 total wins).  Two, the Bills on paper did get much better.  Third, the schedule outside of 2-3 tough tough road games is cake.  And finally, why not be confident?  It is why we're fanatics, they have zero losses and being negative is a burden.

Unfortunately I'm not buying 'em.  Here is a dose of reality.  The Bills were 1-5 in the division last year. They have lost five straight games to the NY Jets and 3 of our last 4 against the Dolphins (really bad Dolphins teams by the way) oh and the Patriots have won 12/13.  Did the division get better? No it probably got worse but not significantly.

What have Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chan Gailey ever won?  Did we forget their record the last two seasons (10-22)? Ol' noodle-arm is still ol' noodle arm and Gailey is scatter shot at best.  If you're counting on the offense being significantly better you're dreaming.

And how about this allegedly great front seven?  Kyle Williams? Coming off a bad foot injury.  Mario Williams? Just got paid big time and can relax, oh and he is coming off a serious injury. Mark Anderson? One year wonder (assuming you don't count 2006). Marcell Dareus? Beast.  But who the hell are the linebackers?  Kirk Morrison?  Yikes. MLB Kelvin Sheppard could be a beast but he has never played the position in the NFL and is unproven.  Nick Bartnett is above serviceable.   Will Alex Carrington and Torell Troup even make the team?  Why is Chris Kelsay still around using up #90?

On offense, SJ13 is back but there are no other weapons.  Chandler?  Marcus Easley can't even dress for a game, David Nelson is slow and soft, Donald Jones hasn't shown much.  How often does a rookie WR step in and contribute right away (TJ Graham)?  The running backs are studs but this isn't a running league.  And still no left tackle.

Look, I am excited for the season but I'm curbing my enthusiasm. Eight wins is reasonable, a division title is not.

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