week 15 nfl picks

crunch time

steve

browns +4.5

buccs @ chargers under 45.5

vikings -6.5 v bears

jags +3.5 v jets

coast

Indy +4.5

Miami +3

Pitt +5.5

Browns +4.5

feyes

Jags +3.5

Hou -3

Colts +4.5

Bengals -5.5

Bills at Lions Week 15 Podcast Preview

Steve and Coast review that awful Rams loss and look ahead to another game of the year potentially. Also Belichick to UNC? ha

youtube rate subscribe review

week 14 nfl picks

bet

steve

buccs -6.5 v raiders

dolphins -6 v jets

chargers +4 @ chiefs

bengals @ cowboys over 49.5

coast 

Lac +4 at KC

Jets +6 at MIA

Falcs +6 at Min 

Eagles -13.5 vs. Car

feyes

Chargers +4

Rams +3.5

ATL +6

Steelers -6.5

Bills vs Rams Week 14 Podcast Preview

The red hot Bills head to LA to face the Rams in a late season battle. AFC playoff breakdown, 49ers breakdown etc. review rate subscribe

week 13 nfl picks

winnter

steve 24-20

falcons +1 v chargers

seahawks -1 @ jets

colts -2.5 @ patriots

browns @ broncos over 42

coast 22-21-1

Tennessee titans +6.5 at Washington commanders 

Indianapolis colts -2.5 at New England patriots

Jacksonville jaguars +3.5 vs. Houston Texans 

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Cincinnati bengals 

feyes 18-24-2

Titans +6

Jags +3.5

Steelers +3 

Vikings-3

week 12 nfl picks

bye buy

steve 22-18

buccs -6 @ nyg

lions -7.5 @ colts

patriots +7.5 @ dolphins

vikings -3.5 @ beara

coast 20-19-1

Indy +7.5, football team -10.5, Miami -7.5, Eagles-3

feyes 17-21-2

Bucs -6

Vikes Bears U 39

Texans -8 

Cards +1

week 11 nfl picks

more

steve 19-17

vikings -6 @ titans

steelers +3.5 v ravens

browns -1 @ saints

colts @ jets over 43.5

coast 18-17-1

Titans +6

Steelers +3.5

Miami -7 and pats +4.5

feyes 15-19-2

Chiefs +2

B3ngals +1.5

Seahawks +6.5

Colts +4

Chiefs at Bills Week 11 Podcast Preview

Kansas City Chiefs! Buffalo Bills! Taylor Swift! A podcast preview of the game of the year, Steve reviews his trip to Indy and we give our predictions

youtube: subscribe rate review, buy ads with out

week 10 nfl picks

dime

steve

broncos +7.5 @ kc

bills @ Colts under 46.5

49ers @ buccs over 50.5

Cardinals +2 v jets

coast 

Jags +7 Denver +7.5 

Tampa +6.5 chargers -7.5

feyes

Vikings Jags O43

Chiefs -7.5

Steelers +2.5

Jets -2

week 9 nfl picks

rolling

steve 16-12

broncos +9 @ ravens

raiders +7 @ bengals

buccs +9 @ chiefs

bills -6.5 v dolphins

coast 12-15-1

Bungals -7

Broncos +9

Chargers -1

Indy +5

feyes 12-14-2

Wash -3.5

Boys dirty birds O 52

Rams -1.5

Philly -7.5

Dolphins at Bills Podcast Preview Week 9

Steve and Coast review the Seahawks game, look at the AFC and breakdown a crucial game against the Dolphins.

youtube

Week 8 NFL Picks

spooky

steve 13-11

dolphins -4 v cardinals

patriots +7 v jets

jags +4 v packers

browns +8 v ravens

coast 10-13-1

bears -2.5 @ wash

Jags +4

lions -11.5

bengals -2.5

feyes 10-12-2

Commanders +2.5

Bucs Falcs U46

Chargers -7

Seahawks +3 😓

 

Bills at Sehawks Preview Week 8 Podcast

Steve and Coast review the Titans (eventual) beat down, take a look at the AFC and breakdown the trip to the Pacific Northwest against the Seahawks

youtube subscribe rate review

week 7 nfl picks

mon ey.

steve 12-8

browns +5.5 v cinci

det @ minny u 50.5

nyg +3.5 v phil

raiders +7 @ rams

coast 8-11-1

Detroit +1.5

Steelers +2

Niners -2

Packers -3

feyes 10-8-2

Vikins -1.5

Gmen +3.5

9ers -2

Jets -2

Titans at Bills Week 7 Podcast Preview

Steve and Coast breakdown the nail-biter with the Jets, the Amari Cooper trade and look ahead to a bleak Tennessee Titans team.

youtube subscribe rate review

Bills Trade for Amari Cooper

by steve

The Bills traded a 3rd and 7th round pick for Amari Cooper and a 6th.

Cooper, 30, has only $1m cap hit. He instantly becomes the Bills leader in receptions, yards, TD catches and targets.

Despite being with one of the worst QBs in the league Cooper has been productive this year. 

The strange part about all of this is how predictable snd obvious it was that the Bills receivers were horrendous. I have been bitching about it all offseason.  Beane gave away Diggs for no 2024 draft capital, less cap space and to a conference rival. 

It made zero sense to go into the year with this corps. And it has been obvious thru six games these turds werent good enough.

Cooper still has tread onthe tires and hopefully will have an impact. Giving up a third is a pretty steep price but when you are desperate and have no cap space you gotta pay up some how.

No extra credit for doing the obvious 

grade C+

week 6 nfl picks

bank rollin

steve 10-6

browns +8.5 @ eagles

cowboys +3.5 v lions

buccs -3.5 @ saints

wash @ balt under 51.5

coast 7-8-1

Jags -1.5 at chi town 

Browns +8.5

Pats +6.5

Carolina +6.5

feyes 8-7-1

Pit -3

Cards packers O 47

Chargers Broncos U 35.5

Bears +1

Bills at Jets Week 6 MNF Podcast Preview

Steve and Coast breakdown the UGLY loss to the Houston Texans and look ahead to a reeling NY Jets team on the road on Monday Night. Predictions and analysis.

youtube:

week 5 nfl picks

leveling

steve 7-5

packers -3 @ rams

giants +7 @ seahawks

cowboys +3 @ steelers

vikings v jets over 40.5

coast 6-6

Bungals +2.5

vikes -2.5

Panthers +4

Jags -3

feyes 6-5-1

Cincy +2.5

Steelers boys U 44

Raiders +3

Vikings -2.5

buffalo sabres 2024-25 season predictions

by steve

yeah some how the "buffalo sabres" season is starting today in chechlaslivakia for reasons??

Lindy Ruff is back and everything else is the same except the 4th line is different overpaid scrubs.

Predictions: 

Steve 86 points

Kat 93 points

wreck 78 points

sano 89 points

Bills at Texans Week 5 Podcast Preview

Steve and Coast breakdown the beat down in Baltimore and look ahead to a huge 1pm battle of Josh Allen vs CJ Stroud and Stefon Diggs

youtube: like share review legggo

week 4 nfl picks

cashe

   u

  n

  d

  a

y

steve 4-4

broncos +8 @ jets

colts +2 v steelers

bears -3 v rams

dolphins -2.5 v titans

coast 4-4

Denver +7.5

Jags +5.5

Pitt -2.5

Buf +2.5

feyes 2-5-1

Bengals panthers O 47

Colts +2

Saints +2.5

Tenny +2.5

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens Week 4 SNF Preview

Steve and Coast review the Jaguars beat down, look at the AFC and preview the Ravens showdown. Lamar vs Josh, predictions and analysis.

Week 3 Jaguars at Bills MNF Podcast Preview

Steve and Coast breakdown the Dolphins win and look ahead to the Jaguars on MNF. A blow out? A let down game against the team that has owned them?

Week 3 NFL Picks

Bank roll build

Steve 2-2

Buccs -6.5 v Broncos

Colts  -1  v Bears

Seahawks -4.5 v Dolphins

Cardinals +3 v Lions

Coast 2-2

Saints -2.5 over Philly. I'm a believer for now. 

Fading the Steelers. One touchdown so far. Gimme the chargers +2.5

Gimme the bills.  Major revenge game with hopefully blowout potential. -5. 

Don't really see the ravens going 0-3 and Dallas might be a disaster. Balt -1.5

Feyes 1-2-1

Bucs -6.5

Cardinals +3

GB +3

KC  ATL O 46.5

week 2 NFL PICKS

woops, missed week 1

leggo

steve

cowboys v saints over 46.6

buccs +7.5 v lions

jax -3 v browns

kc -6 v cinci

coast

Dallas -6, titans +4, bungals +6, Bucs +7.5

feyes

Jags -3

Colts -2.5

Seahawks -3

Steelers -2.5

2024 Bills at Dolphins TNF Podcast Preview

Steve and Coast review week one of the 2024 NFL season and the win over the Cardinals then look ahead to a quick turn around in week 2. Dolphins on TNF predictions and breakdown.

youtube: subscribe rate review

2024 Buffalo Bills Season Preview Podcast

Steve and Coast are back again for their 17th season doing podcasts previewing the 2024 Bills season. They breakdown each game of the upcoming season and give their outlook for an unusual upcoming year.

youtube: contact wnywatercooler@gmail.com for inquiries

2024 Buffalo Bills Spread For the Season

by steve

The spreads are out and have settled. Lets take a look at the spread of all 17 2024 regular season Bills games via DK:

week 1

bills -7 v arizona

week 2

+1 @ miami

week 3

-4.5 v Jacksonville 

week 4

+3 @ Baltimore 

week 5

+1.5 @ Houston 

week 6

+1.5 @ Jets

week 7

-7 v Tenny

week 8

-3 @ Seattle 

week 9

-3 v Miami 

week 10

-2 @ Colts

week 11

-1 v KC

week 12

bye

week 13

+2 @ 49ers

week 14

-1 @ Rams

week 15

+2 @ Detroit 

week 16

-8.5 v Patriots

week 17

-2.5 v Jets

week 18

-3.5 @ Patriots

Bills are dogs for the most games in 5 years with games as an underdog and even getting points at home vs SF.

Buffalo is +700 4th best odds to win the AFC,  +160 best odds to win the division.

Their current win total is 10.5 with the under being hammered at  -140

Bills 2024 2nd Round Pick Keon Coleman

Patriots traded their pick right after us. We drafted the replacement for Gabe Davis

Keon Coleman is big but cant separate and played mostly at MSU. At least we traded back

grade 

C+

2024 NFL Draft Buffalo Bills Preview Predictions Part 5

by steve

Here are links to the first four parts of my Bills draft preview

The ideal day 1 would be for the Bills to move out of the first round and have three 2nd round picks or two and a 3rd. Take two 2nd round receivers.

In this scenario the Bills looking around at 28 and the top 4 or even 5 receivers are already gone and there is no round 1 grade on anyone else.

If trading down doesnt come to fruition Is go either Coleman or Worthy. I could live with the white Iowa safety but it would put tremendous pressure on Beane to get WEAPONS on Friday (coleman, franklin, pearsall, worthy).

Worst case scenario is moving 3+ premium picks to draft the 3rd or 4th best WR prospect. No one knows if these dudes are going to be good and the 29% hit rate for receivers in round 1 the last 20 years is scary.

Sure you get 4 years of a cheap contract (the fifth year is gonna be at least $16mil) so you save 20 to 25 mil in cap space vs trading for someone like Aiyuk but Aiyuk is a guarantee you are getting a stud. Drafting the second best Texas or LSU receiver is certainly no guarantee. 

But fo the Bills really care that much about cap space? They just pussed away $30 mil in space on someone to help beat them this season. Cap space is a borderline myth. I dont buy the cheap contract rhetoric, plus it likely wouldnt cost a first for Aiyuk. 

I could stomach moving up 3-5 spots at best for the WR they covet but you cant lose the 2nd round pick.

Other Draft predictions:

QBs dont go 1-4

Adi Mitchell falls out of the first round

No runningback goes til round 3

5 QBs go first round.

Everyine loves what the Bears do and rip the Patriots

2024 NFL Draft Preview Buffalo Bills Part 3

The 2024 draft is tomorrow. 

Here is part 1, the picks and needs

Part 2 random WR takes

And now more misc:

Everyone says this is a deep WR class but is that actually the case? Who the fuck knows but I took a look at the last 4 drafts and a handfull of 7 round mock drafts and came up with these numbers from rounds 1-5:

2023

There were 20 receivers taken in the first 5 rounds. Round by round:

4, 4, 6, 3, 3

2022 

23 receivers drafted rounds 1-5

6, 7, 4, 3, 3

2021

23 receivers drafted rounds 1-5

5, 5, 5, 5, 3

2020

25 receivers drafted rounds 1-5

6, 7, 2, 2, 8

i looked at three 7 round mocks they had an average of 27.3 receivers taken in the first 5 rounds. 

Is that really that much more than the 4 year rolling average? no.

Schefter posted the hit rate or percent of first round positions that signed a second contract with the team that drafted them. Receivers were DFL with only 27% of WRs the last 20 years "hitting" as a first round pick.

Beane better be smart enough to not bet the farm on the 3rd or 4th best WR prospect in round 1.

2024 NFL Draft Buffalo Bills Preview Part 2 WRs

by steve

Here is part 1, Bills needs.

Clearly the Bills are desperate for receivers. Most mocks have 5-7 WRs going in the first round with 3 going top 10. With Brandon Beane having a propensity for foolishly trading up it means the Bills likely wont have any picks on day 2.

So, I looked at WRs from last years class in rounds 3-6:

Round 3

Dell, Hyatt, Tillman, Downs, Michael Wilson and Trey Tucker.

They averaged 36 catches 497 yards and 2.3 TDs.

Round 4

Davis, Jones, and Tyler Scott.

They averaged 13 cstches 99 yards and 0 TDs for the season. Yikes

Round 5 

Shorter, Wicks & Puka.

They averaged 48 catches, 689 yards and 3.3 TDs.

Round 6 had a few decent players, Parker Washington and Trey Palmer.

Based on this info Id say it would be wise to try to keep as many of their 4-6 picks and draft mutiple day 3 receivers. But will Beane allow the board to come to him or will he waste picks and reach for players he has no clue will be good or not.

2024 Buffalo Bills NFL Draft Preview

by steve

The draft is Thursday. Lets preview it:

The Bills picks:

round 1 28

round 2 60

round 4 128

round 4 133

round 5 144

round 5 160

round 5 163

round 6 200

round 6 204

round 7 248

Biggest needs:

WR

WR

Safety

Edge

Center

After the Diggs trade and Gabe Davis departing in free agency the Bills are bereft of talent and bodies at the WR position. At the time I said the trade made zero sense and I stand by that with no step 2 after the move.

Everyone knows trading up is stupid yet Beane always does and is almost guaranteed to do it again Thursday. If he trades this years 2nd or next years first and i might snap. 

Sabres Do Obvious Thing, Fire Shitty Coach

by steve

The surprising thing is the Sabres did the correct thing. They did the thing that no one thought they would do. They did the thing real sports franchises and real NHL teams do. They fired their bad head coach.

 Don Granato was finally fired

Sure, Granato had a contract extension that doesn't even start until next season. But also he was a bad head coach. So he had to be fired.

Believe it or not, its not hard to make the playoffs in the NHL. Sure, everything is difficult for the Sabres to do but for just about every other team ever, its not hard. Every team randomly makes the playoffs every 3 or 4 years.

It is unfathomable that the Sabres have gone THIRTEEN years without making the playoffs. Truly unbelievable. 

There are no kudos or bonus points for Kyvynyn Adams actually doing the thing he had to do. But cmon there is no way he would have done this with out zombie Terry Pegula's blessing or dictate. Who the fuck knows though, we never hear from Terry and likely wont after this.

I don't really have names for a replacement. Pick it out of a hat. The team is fuckin soft, young and used to losing. Go with a tough guy, a hardass. Whip these boys into shape.

Just dont hire Lindy Ruff.

Peace out Donny meatballs, thanks for nothing.

Bills Trade Stefon Diggs, Have No Plan

by Steve

The Bills traded their only NFL caliber outside receiver a month into free agency seemingly on a whim with no pla, no foresight and no clue.

Now only do the Bills give Diggs, a very productive receiver at age 30 to a conference rival but they get nothing in return to help this season. They LOSE an additonal $3 mil in cap space. They lose 100+ catches and 1200+ yards. They lose Allen's best weapon with no obvious replacement.

After Beane's press conference it was clear there is no plan B, there is no part 2 of this trade. Is something like that possible? Maybe but not likely. The Bills have no cap space and a lot of holes to fill. Could they make a move in June after space opens up, sure but that is well after the draft . Options like trading for Brandon Aiyuk or god forbid Tee Higgins might closed.

Everyone knew from day 1 Diggs was an enigma, a possible malcontent and a potential problem. Why would Minny deal him if he wasn't. The trade was great, there were problems but things were fine. But was that extension in 2022 needed? Wise? Clearly not. It was botched, just like Von Miller and Dawson Knox. 

Fine, Diggs wanted out and requested to be traded, allegedly. Who cares? What was he going to be  a distraction? He already was! He wasnt going to sit out and he wasnt going to half ass it. Losing his production, losing the additonal cap space and only getting a 2025 2nd while sending out 2 picks isnt a great return. 

A pick from a future year is widely seen as subtracting a round from it. So saying its a 2nd round pick really means a third round pick. Add in losing this years 6th and next years 5th, which we'll say is equal to a 6th, the value charts put it at pick #18 in round 3 or the 82nd overall pick with a total value of 178 points on the jimmy johnson chart.

The funny thing is a lot of the old media is defending the trade. My guess is because a lot of media members didnt like Diggs. He shunned traditional media, press conferences and decorum. The Bills own media quietly said it out loud! So of course they will paint it in a rosy picture.

The worst part about all of this might be what happens next. The Bills are now clearly DESPERATE to trade up and get a top WR prospect. Does that ever work out? Has Beane ever shown he understands value or outsmarts the draft? Giving up mutiple high picks (next years first and or this years 2nd) to move up only to get the 3rd or fourth best receiver prospect is an ugly possibility. The guy they sell out for then needs to be a stud. Anyone wanna bet thats a slamdunk?

Super Bowl betting odds are based on many things. Potential injuries, leverage, exposure, luck, rubes pouring money into future bets. Because the line hasnt changed much means nothing. Are the Bills and Josh Allen now more or less likely to beat Mahomes? Do we really want to force Allen to (try) and do MORE with less talent around him? Hes already panicky in the playoffs. 

Sure the cap looks better next year and the Bills had to get younger and cheaper and WR but it seems much less likely the Bills win more in 2024 than 2023. Tossing out a year of Allen's prime is a precious thing to lose.

BiG 12 Standings Thru Thurs

after tues wedn thur standings:

thur - 10

coast - 10

feyes & steve - 12

dubs - 13

schrum - 18

wreck - 19

big 12 final points

thur - 20

steve - 17

feyes - 17

wreck - 29

coast - 20

schrum - 23

dub - 28

BIG 12 Tourny Brackets

Details for the Big 12 Bracket Challenge 

7 brackets submitted

$75 1st place $30 2nd place

1 iowa state winner

2 texas winners

4 houston winners

Brackets:

Thur

Game 1: UCF 

game 2: Cincinnati 

game 3: by

game 4: ou

Game 5: Texas

Game 6: Kansas

Game 7: BYU

Game 8: Houston

Game 9: ISU

Game 10: Kansas

Game 11: Houston

Game 12: ISU

Game 13: Houston 

total 153

Steve

UCF Cinci

BYU OU TEXAS Cinci

BYU HOU TEXAS BAY

HOU TEX

TEXAS

138

Wreck

UCF

WVU

BYU

TCU

K St

KU

Tech

Hou

Iowa St

Baylor 

Hou

Iowa St

Hou. 

125

Coast

Ucf

Cinci 

Byu 

Oklahoma 

Texas

Kansas

Byu

Houston 

State 

Kansas 

Houston

State

Houston

159

Feyes

Rd 1: UCF, Nati

RD 2: BYU, OU, Texas, Kansas

RD 3:BYU, Houston, Texas, Baylor

RD 4: Houston, Texans

CHAMPS: Texas 152

Schrum

UCF

Cincy

BYU

Okla

Texas

Cincy

TTech

Houston

IState

Baylor

Houston

Baylor

Houston

155

Dubs

UCF

CINCY

UCF

TCU

TEXAS

CINCY

UCF

HOUSTON

IOWA ST

BAYLOR

HOUSTON

IOWA ST

IOWA ST - CHAMPS

TOTAL - 127

BIG 12 Tournament Bracket

the most wonderful time of the year

This year we are doing a BIG 12 err BIG XII bracket. Available here 

$15

1 point for 1st round correct winner then 2 points and so on. 

bracket due by 12:30pm tuesday

tie breaker is total points in the final

email to wnywatercooler@gmail.com 

Super Bowl Picks

the end

steve 6-5-1

chiefs +1.5

over 46.5

coast 7-5

feyes 7-5

CCS NFL PICKS

Conference Championship Sunday

steve 5-4-1

chiefs +4.5 @ ravens 

49ers -7.5 v lions

coast 5-5

chiefs +4.5

lions +7.5

feyes 7-3

Ravens -4.5

Lions 9ers U 51.5

DRW NFL Picks

DRW get some

steve 5-1

ravens v texans over 44

49ers -10 v packers

buccs +6 @ lions

chiefs at bills under 45.5

coast 4-2

Baltimore -9.5

San Fran -10

Tampa +6.5

Buffalo -2.5

feyes 5-1

Texans +9.5

SF -10

Lions -6

Chefs Bills 0 45.5

Chiefs at Bills Divisional Round Playoff Podcast Preview

Steve and Coast breakdown the monumental DRW playoff game in Buffalo and review the Steelers WCW playoff win. Must listen

youtube:

Wildcard Weekend Picks WCW!

a new season the postseason! 

steve 

browns @ texans over 44.5

chiefs -5 v dolphins 

packers @ cowboys over 50.5

rams +3 @ lions

steelers +10 @ bills

buccs +3 v Eagles 

coast

I'm gonna roll with: 

Houston +2

Miami +5

Dallas -7

Rams +3

Buffalo -10

TB +3

feyes

Texans +2

KC -5

GB +7

Rams +3

Bills laying whatever 

philly -3

Steelers at Bills Wildcard Playoff Podcast Preview

Steve and Coast review the Dolphins victory and look ahead to a home playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Weather? Rudolph? McDerr v Tomlin?

youtube

week 18 nfl picks

fin

champion steve 39-28-1

buccs -4

eagles -4.5 

patriots -2.5 v jets

vikings +4 @ lions 

coast 33-35

feyes 34-32-2

Bills at Dolphins Week 18 Podcast Preview

Steve and Coast look at the different playoff scenarios and breakdown the Miami Dolphins in the showdown for the division in week 18.

youtube: